At The Boundary

The Hidden Risks of a Ukraine Ceasefire

Apr 21, 2025
Dr. Arman Mahmudian, a Research Fellow focused on geopolitics, and David Kramer, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute, dive into the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They discuss the implications of a ceasefire, with Kramer emphasizing Russia's aggression and the critical nature of U.S. support. The duo raises concerns about Ukraine's security guarantees without NATO membership, explores battlefield innovations, and outlines urgent U.S. actions needed to strengthen Ukraine. Their insights reveal the delicate balance of global security amid this ongoing crisis.
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INSIGHT

Russia As Clear Aggressor

  • Russia is the clear aggressor, having launched invasions in 2014 and 2022 that violated Ukraine's sovereignty.
  • Putin has repeatedly avoided genuine ceasefires and used referenda and force to seize territory rather than law or consent.
INSIGHT

U.S. Support Is Decisive

  • U.S. military support has been critical for Ukraine's ability to regain territory and strike deep into Russia.
  • If U.S. support ended, Ukraine would keep fighting but likely face much greater difficulty and rely more on European aid.
INSIGHT

Don't Let Russia Veto NATO's Open Door

  • Closing NATO membership to Ukraine hands Russia a de facto veto over Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • Creative security guarantees or European deployments can provide deterrence without immediate NATO accession.
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