Macro Traders' Terrible Year, Le Pen Makes Demands & From Citi Trading to Cattle Trading
Nov 29, 2024
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Macro traders are facing their toughest year since the pandemic, with tighter margins and economic uncertainties weighing down revenues. In France, Marine Le Pen's party aims to influence the government’s budget while Prime Minister Barnier makes key concessions. Meanwhile, Putin threatens strikes in Kyiv amid rising tensions. Excitingly, ex-trader Murray Roos is revolutionizing livestock auctions with a new online platform, moving from banking to farming and utilizing technology to modernize the industry.
Macro traders are experiencing their worst year since the pandemic, with revenue declines due to tighter margins and economic instability.
The National Rally Party in France is demanding major revisions to the 2025 budget, which could lead to political instability amid economic concerns.
Deep dives
Challenges for Macro Traders
Macro traders are facing significant difficulties as 2023 shapes up to be their worst year since the pandemic. Factors such as tighter margins and unfavorable economic conditions have contributed to declining revenues, with top firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan expected to earn significantly less from G10 rates trading and currency trades. Investor confidence has decreased, driven by unexpected economic data and uncertainties surrounding key events like the US elections. Analysts predict that while the situation remains bleak, currency trading could see a rebound in 2025 and 2026.
Budgetary Pressure in France
In France, the National Rally Party is demanding substantial changes to the upcoming 2025 budget bill, following government concessions on tax adjustments for electricity. Party president Jordan Bardella has urged for revisions, including maintaining drug reimbursement levels and avoiding new taxes. The economic implications are significant, as many Asian investors are closely monitoring French bonds, which are now yielding returns reminiscent of 2012 levels. This situation could trigger political instability, particularly with looming threats of no-confidence votes against the government.
Revolutionizing Livestock Trading
A former finance executive is transitioning from Wall Street to the livestock market by aiming to digitize livestock trading, similar to developments in equity trading. He founded LivestockX to address frustrations about the traditional auction process, where prices are unclear until the actual auction occurs. By utilizing an electronic platform, he plans to list detailed data about livestock that could simplify transactions for farmers. While the venture is in the early stages, the concept presents a potential shift in how livestock is traded, although challenges remain due to the industry's traditional nature.
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On today's podcast:
(1) The world’s banks are on track to report the lowest revenue from foreign-exchange and rates trading since the pandemic, hit by tighter margins and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
(2) Marine Le Pen’s National Rally set out further demands for changes to the French government’s 2025 budget bill after Prime Minister Michel Barnier dropped plans to raise taxes on electricity in a key concession.
(3) President Vladimir Putin warned that his forces could strike “decision-making centers” in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with new ballistic missiles as retaliation for attacks on Russia using Western missiles.
(4) Ireland holds a general election on Friday, with Prime Minister Simon Harris hoping to capitalize on a strong economy to secure another five years in power.
(5) Murray Roos was until late last year central to an effort to revolutionise the world’s capital markets via the London Stock Exchange’s nascent digital assets platform. Now, the 48-year-old former trader is using technology to take on even more entrenched market — the UK’s centuries old livestock auctions.