How Ukraine Can Win the Peace: A Conversation with Stephen Kotkin
Aug 25, 2023
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Stephen Kotkin discusses the ongoing offensive in Ukraine, the false shortcuts to ending the war, analyzing the possibility of extending the war, challenges faced by Ukraine, and the pursuit of avoiding a wider war. He also explores the concept of victory for Ukraine and the challenges of achieving an enduring peace.
Winning the peace is crucial for Ukraine and should involve EU accession and a security guarantee, considering the challenges of regaining Crimea.
Western support for Ukraine has limitations and should be accompanied by a focus on avoiding a wider war and managing escalation.
Deep dives
Overview of the Podcast Episode
The podcast episode features a conversation between Mike Kaufman and Stephen Kotkin, an eminent historian of Russian and Soviet history. The discussion centers around the offensive in Ukraine, reflections on the war, and the implications for the future of Russia and international relations. Kotkin reflects on his previous predictions regarding the war and the shortcuts that were envisioned, which ultimately did not materialize. He emphasizes the importance of winning the peace rather than just the war and raises questions about the feasibility and implications of regaining Crimea. They also discuss the current offensive in Ukraine and the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces. The conversation touches on the Western support provided to Ukraine, including munitions and equipment, and the complexities of managing the conversation around support and escalation.
The Complexity of Winning the Peace
Kotkin highlights the importance of winning the peace in addition to winning the war. He questions the feasibility and consequences of regaining Crimea, considering the potential for an enduring grievance from Russia and the challenges of managing the Russian population residing in Crimea. He emphasizes that victory for Ukraine should entail EU accession and a security guarantee, and that winning the peace requires considering long-term implications and ensuring a lasting settlement.
The Challenges of Western Support
The discussion touches on the challenges and criticisms surrounding Western support for Ukraine. It addresses the limitations of the support provided, such as munitions and equipment, and the difficulty of achieving decisive outcomes solely through Western weaponry. The conversation recognizes the efforts made by Western countries and points to the broader goal of avoiding a wider war as a factor influencing the level of support. It also explores the dynamics of the strategic triangle comprising strategic defeat for Russia, victory for Ukraine, and escalation management.
Balancing Objectivity and Partisanship
The conversation acknowledges the difficulty of maintaining objectivity while being personally invested in the outcome of the war. Both Kaufman and Kotkin reflect on their roles as analysts and researchers, striving to balance objectivity and their personal preferences for Ukraine's success. They discuss the complexities and nuances involved in analyzing the war, the decision-making processes of different countries, and potential criticism of Western decisions regarding support for Ukraine.
On this special preview of the Russia Contingency, Mike sat down with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The conversation touched on the latest news from the Ukrainian offensive, examined lessons learned from observing the conflict and explored the Ukrainian definition of victory in the war. Parts two and three of this conversation are available exclusively on the Russia Contingency. Sign up today.
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