The Bulwark Podcast Bill Kristol: Maybe It's Dobbs, After All
Nov 4, 2024
Bill Kristol, a prominent conservative political commentator and contributing editor at The Bulwark, joins Tim Miller to discuss the shifting dynamics of current elections. They dive into the gender gap in early voting, particularly linked to abortion, and analyze how the Dobbs decision could shape the political landscape. Kristol also critiques the Trump team's handling of these issues, touches on concerning voter trends, and reflects on the implications of violent rhetoric in today’s politics.
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2016 Iowa Poll
- In 2016, Ann Selzer's accurate Iowa poll, showing Trump +7, made Bill Kristol nervous about Hillary's chances.
- Two Republican congressmen confirmed his fears, highlighting how Iowa's results often predict Midwest trends.
Dobbs' Impact
- The Dobbs decision and the abortion issue have been underestimated in this election cycle.
- Even in states where it's not a central issue, it might still influence voting decisions.
Polling Weighting
- Weighting in polls, especially for factors like education or 2020 vote, involves guesswork about the electorate.
- Ann Selzer's more traditional polling, relying on objective factors like age, gender, and demographics, contributes to her accuracy.