Zelensky strikes 'win-win' deal with Trump & Russia's nuclear arsenal in 'inevitable' decline
Feb 26, 2025
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Terry Virts, a former NASA astronaut and USAF F-16 pilot, joins Fabian Hoffman, an expert on Russia’s nuclear capabilities, to discuss pressing geopolitical issues. They dive into the state of Russia's nuclear arsenal, examining its decline due to sanctions and outdated technology. The conversation shifts to drone warfare and the complexities of a new minerals deal tied to security guarantees. Together, they explore the changing dynamics of global nuclear power and highlight the urgent need for enhanced defense capabilities in Europe.
Russia's drone production has surged dramatically to 150 drones a day, complicating Ukraine's defensive strategies amidst evolving military threats.
European countries have dramatically increased military support for Ukraine, emphasizing a shift in reliance away from U.S. contributions for defense.
Concerns about the decline of Russia's nuclear arsenal and its implications for global security highlight the need for reconsideration of nuclear strategies.
Deep dives
Rise in Russian Drone Production
Russia's drone production has significantly increased, with reports indicating the country is producing around 150 drones a day, up from 30-40 per day just months ago. This surge includes drones equipped with heavier explosive payloads, raising concerns about the potential impact on Ukraine's defenses. As Ukraine has shot down a large number of these drones, understanding the nature of these attacks is crucial. Drones utilized in these operations may include dummy versions designed to deceive Ukrainian air defenses, complicating the assessment of their actual threat level.
Ukrainian Military Response and Evolving Tactics
Ukrainian air defenses have been actively engaged, successfully intercepting a significant percentage of incoming Russian drones. These defensive measures are bolstered by advanced electronic warfare capabilities, which have recently diminished the effectiveness of Russia's satellite-guided bombs. As these technologies evolve, the ability to track and neutralize threats in real-time becomes essential for minimizing civilian casualties and maintaining military effectiveness. However, as ground contests unfold, both sides experience shifts in territorial control, showcasing the dynamic nature of the ongoing conflict.
International Military Aid to Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine has drawn substantial international military assistance, with reports indicating that European countries, the UK, and Norway provided nearly $25 billion in military support for 2024. This amount eclipses U.S. contributions for the period, highlighting Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense. However, there are concerns about future U.S. support and the potential implications of a withdrawal, emphasizing the necessity for European nations to bolster their support and capabilities. As reliance on the U.S. fluctuates, Ukraine’s resilience will depend on sustaining and expanding its partnerships and support networks.
Geopolitical Implications of U.S. Foreign Policy
Recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding military support and economic ties, have raised alarms about the long-term ramifications for Ukraine and Europe. Criticism has arisen around proposed conditions for Ukraine’s economic restitution to the U.S., perceived as prioritizing transactional frameworks over supportive alliances. Such stances may embolden adversarial nations, undermining the stability of European security frameworks. Analysts express concerns that the evolving geopolitical landscape, marked by a potential shift toward an isolationist U.S. policy, could precipitate further instability in Eastern Europe.
The Future of Nuclear Deterrence
The current state of nuclear arsenals reflects a complex and evolving global security landscape, with Russia maintaining the largest nuclear stockpile while facing modernization challenges. The implications of traditional arms control dynamics are further compounded by varying strategic doctrines among nuclear states, particularly with respect to non-strategic nuclear capabilities. Discussions include concerns over nuclear proliferation, as nations assess the deterrent value of acquiring their own arsenals in light of changing international relations. As tensions rise, there is a growing call for European nations to bolster their defense strategies and reconsider their nuclear postures amid uncertainties in the U.S. commitment to global security.
Today, we delve into Russia's expanding drone production and the arrival of a North Korean delegation in Moscow. On the political front, we explore the complex minerals deal and the challenging negotiations surrounding security guarantees. Later, we engage with experts to discuss the deteriorating state of Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Contributors:
Adélie Pojzman-Pontay (Journalist and Producer). @adeliepjz on X.
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.
Terry Virts (Former NASA Astronaut and USAF F-16 Pilot). @AstroTerry on X.
Fabian Hoffman (Expert on Russia’s nuclear capability). @FRHoffmann1 on X.
NOW AVAILABLE IN NEW LANGUAGES:
The Telegraph has launched translated versions of Ukraine: The Latest in Ukrainian and Russian, making its reporting accessible to audiences on both sides of the battle lines and across the wider region, including Central Asia and the Caucasus. It uses cutting edge artificial intelligence (AI) to retain our voices. Just search Україна: Останні Новини (Ukr) and Украина: Последние Новости (Ru) on your on your preferred podcast app to find them, or click the links below.
