Coffee House Shots Covid report: ‘a £200 million I told you so’
Nov 21, 2025
Isabel Hardman, a journalist and author focusing on government inquiries, teams up with Michael Simmons, an economics editor critical of the Covid Inquiry’s methodologies. They dive into the inquiry's findings on chaotic decision-making in No. 10, claiming 23,000 preventable deaths. Simmons calls the report a disgrace, arguing it misuses modelling and overlooks broader societal harms. Hardman warns that the focus on personalities may sideline necessary systemic reforms. The conversation explores the political implications and the need for a more balanced approach to future policies.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Decision-Making Culture Was Toxic
- The inquiry confirmed a chaotic, fear-driven culture at the centre of government during early Covid.
- It concluded February 2020 was a 'lost month' that reflected a lack of seriousness about the approaching pandemic.
Modelling Misrepresented As Proof
- Michael Simmons argues the inquiry misuses modelling and overstates certainty with the 23,000 deaths figure.
- He calls the report a '£200 million I told you so' that cherry-picks Neil Ferguson's model as definitive.
Big Numbers Can Undermine Reports
- The 23,000 figure relied on one model while competing models suggested the first wave had already peaked.
- Isabel warns that dramatic headline claims must stand up or the inquiry loses authority.