Under Pressure: Michael Cerny and Rory Truex on China Discourse in the U.S. Foreign Policy Community

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Jan 2, 2025

Michael Cerny, a Ph.D. student at Harvard formerly with the Carter Center, and Rory Truex, an Associate Professor at Princeton, delve into their new working paper on China policy among U.S. foreign policy professionals. They discuss the myth of consensus, revealing the impact of groupthink and professional pressures on opinions. A notable creation, the China Confrontation Index, helps analyze varying attitudes. The conversation also highlights the nuanced labels of 'hawk' and 'dove,' and offers insights for emerging voices in the foreign policy arena.

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INSIGHT

Consensus vs. Pressure

A true consensus implies shared understanding, while pressure-shaped consensus masks dissent.
This distinction matters for assessing the China challenge accurately and crafting effective policies.

INSIGHT

Survey Methodology

The survey targeted think tank professionals, not government officials, using a broad sample.
Researchers aimed for a representative sample, acknowledging potential biases and employing weighting techniques.

ANECDOTE

Hawk vs. Dove Labels

Hawks readily embrace the "hawk" label, while those labeled "doves" often reject it, preferring terms like "pragmatist" or "moderate".
This suggests a perceived negative connotation associated with "dove", possibly due to its less assertive image.

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This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."

5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together

7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus

10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame

14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions

17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index”

20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove”

23:33 – The issue of preference falsification

25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure

29:01 – Tying in Rory’s previous research on self-censorship

32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews

34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings

36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China

40:34 – Pressure on hawks

42:35 – Specific policy questions

44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft

49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness

51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr’s concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War

55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field

New segment: Paying It Forward:

Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid

Recommendations:

Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid’s Sinobabble podcast about Chinese history

Michael: Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition

Kaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris

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