BiggerPockets Daily Seasonal Markets Show Signs of Weakness
Nov 16, 2025
This discussion explores the cooling of seasonal U.S. housing markets, with vacation towns like Aspen and Boca Raton facing significant declines in sales. Second-home buyers are retreating due to affordability and elevated mortgage rates. Florida is highlighted as especially vulnerable, with a surge in inventory and flat prices. Stricter financing is impacting vacation property purchases, yet opportunities for short-term rental investors arise as competition softens. The podcast connects these trends to shifts in travel spending and regional travel preferences.
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Second Homes Lead The Slowdown
- Seasonal (vacation) towns are cooling faster than non-seasonal markets with sales down more year-over-year.
- Second-home demand fell first because these purchases are discretionary and hit by affordability and higher mortgage rates.
Affordability Pressures Squeeze Buyers
- Elevated mortgage rates and tight affordability force typical households to spend nearly 40% of income on housing.
- Only about one-third of U.S. homes are affordable to a median-earning household, squeezing discretionary second-home buyers.
Vacation Mortgages Have Dried Up
- Mortgage originations for vacation properties hit a six-year low in 2024 showing sharp pullback.
- Second homes are more sensitive because they cost more upfront and require higher down payments.