The Nietzsche Podcast Ages of Discord by Peter Turchin #1 : Imperiopathosis & the Political Stress Index
Dec 2, 2025
Explore the concept of imperiopathosis and its implications for today's political climate. Delve into Turchin's Political Stress Index, which combines mass mobilization potential and fiscal distress to predict instability. Discover historical parallels with the Gilded Age and the political turbulence of the 2020s. Analyze factors driving discord, such as elite competition, social mistrust, and financial precarity. Ultimately, the discussion warns of potential future crises while drawing insights from Nietzsche on societal madness.
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Imperiopathosis As Predictable Cycle
- Peter Turchin formalizes cyclical political disintegration as 'imperiopathosis' driven by structural factors.
- Disintegrative phases last decades and need not end in collapse but often require major reconstitution.
Political Stress Index As A Leading Indicator
- Turchin compresses instability drivers into a Political Stress Index (PSI) = MMP × EMP × SFD.
- PSI multiplies mass mobilization, elite mobilization, and state fiscal distress into a single bellwether.
Concrete Components Of PSI
- Mass mobilization ties to falling real wages, urbanization, and youth bulges while elite mobilization ties to elite incomes and intra-elite competition.
- State fiscal distress is operationalized by debt servicing burdens and investor confidence.
