War on the Rocks The Reckoning of the Ayatollahs: Understanding Iran's Burgeoning Uprising
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Jan 13, 2026 Afshon Ostovar, an expert on the Iranian regime, shares captivating insights on the ongoing protests in Iran calling for regime change. He analyzes the rapid spread of dissent from provinces to Tehran and discusses the economic drivers behind the unrest, including hyperinflation and elite corruption. Afshon explores the role of Reza Pahlavi, the ousted shah's son, in the current movement and evaluates the intricate security apparatus supporting the regime. He also speculates on possible scenarios for achieving regime change and their regional implications.
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Nationwide Anti-Regime Surge
- Protests in Iran have become the broadest anti-regime movement since 1979, spanning provinces and social sectors.
- Afshon Ostovar says this marks the clearest articulation of widespread Iranian exhaustion with the Islamic Republic.
Economic Collapse Fuels Unlikely Protesters
- Iran's fiscal collapse stems from elite corruption, sanctions, and oil-price issues working together.
- Ostovar argues the regime lacks will and ability to fix the economic spiral, driving even conservative bazaaris into protest.
Slogans Show Shift Toward Regime Exit
- Slogans have shifted from reformist demands to explicit calls for regime end and even monarchy restoration.
- Ostovar notes chants like 'long live Reza Pahlavi' are more common and reflect search for a totemic alternative.