Jeremy Grantham, GMO – Short-Term Pessimist, Long-Term Optimist | #397

Today’s guest is Jeremy Grantham, the Long-Term Investment Strategist and co-founder of GMO. It’s been about a year since we first spoke with Jeremy and given his knowledge of financial history, there are few people who are better to hear from about what’s happening in the world today than Jeremy. 

We start by touching on his investment in QuantumScape, which he saw grow to $500 million on paper and later decline by 80%. Then Jeremy shares what he thinks the societal implications will be from a huge potential write down of perceived wealth in the US if this superbubble bursts.

He also touches on some of his biggest concerns at the moment: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, labor and materials shortages, poor demographics, and rising inflation.

While Jeremy is frequently referred to as a bear, one of my big takeaways is his optimism and excitement to solve some of the longer-term problems faced around the globe.  

If you want to hear our conversation with Jeremy from February 2021, click here.

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• (2:52) - Welcome back to our guest, Jeremy Grantham; Episode #286: Jeremy Grantham, GMO
• (3:32) - What’s transpired in the past 12 months since he first appeared on the show
• (6:14) - Update on his investment in QuantumScape
• (12:57) - The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on wheat prices
• (19:32) - Would we be better off with robots instead of the Fed?
• (22:00) - Societal implications of a possible write down in perceived wealth
• (25:35) - Not being able to rely on bond diversification (Ben Inker 4Q21 Letter)
• (26:54) - Jeremy’s thoughts on commodities and emerging market value today
• (29:53) - Triumph of the Optimists; Credit Suisse Annual Reports
• (33:02) - Why Jeremy is as a perma-bear but largely optimistic; Reinvesting When Terrified
• (34:59) - What Jeremy is thinking about in the VC world
• (38:02) - Jeremy’s take on nuclear power
• (45:38) - The cost of capital and inflationary pressures in the coming decade

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