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HSBC Global Viewpoint: Banking and Markets
The Macro Brief – Talking Trade
Jan 12, 2024
Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist, discusses the expected growth in world exports this year and the main risks to trade in 2024, including geopolitical tensions and climate-related risks. She also talks about supply chain adjustments and key dates in global trade, such as the US election and EU-China tensions.
08:57
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Quick takeaways
- Global trade is expected to recover in 2024 with a forecasted growth of 1.8% after a contraction of 0.7% in the previous year, supported by inventory rebuilding and a sustained increase in consumer spending.
- Businesses and countries are likely to adjust their supply chains, with evidence of reshoring occurring in Mexico and Asia, but mainland China remains a significant trading partner for many countries.
Deep dives
Global Trade Outlook for 2024
Global trade is expected to pick up in 2024 with a forecasted growth of 1.8% after a contraction of 0.7% in the previous year. Factors supporting trade flows include inventory rebuilding and a sustained increase in consumer spending. However, the outlook is not without risks, including geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty amid upcoming elections, rise in protectionist actions, and climate-related risks such as the drought restrictions in the Panama Canal.
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