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Finshots Daily

Is this China's 'Japanification' moment?

Aug 18, 2023
06:40
Snipd AI
This podcast discusses the current economic crisis in China, analyzing key issues such as deflation, high youth unemployment, and the housing crisis. It explores the government's efforts to conceal the severity of the situation and factors contributing to the crisis like the collapse of the real estate market and crackdown on the tech sector. It also explores China's reliance on lockdowns and mass testing during the pandemic, the concerns of economists regarding a possible balance sheet recession, and the challenges faced in reversing the drop in consumption and deflation.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The collapse of China's real estate market, driven by excessive debt and government intervention, has led to a decline in consumer spending and a loss of wealth for investors.
  • China's economic crisis is further exacerbated by crackdowns on the tech sector, frequent lockdowns, and falling prices, causing job cuts, disrupted economic growth, and a hesitant consumer outlook.

Deep dives

China's real estate collapse and debt defaults

One of the main culprits for China's current economic crisis is the collapse of its real estate market. Years of unbridled real estate expansion fueled by excessive debt led to soaring house prices, which reached up to 50 times the average national income. However, the government intervened and cut off the debt flow, causing developers to default and house prices to plummet. The recent default of Evergrande and the potential default of Country Garden further exacerbated the crisis. As a result, people who had invested in real estate saw their wealth vanish, leading to panic and a decline in consumer spending.

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