Episode 2244: John Hagel on overcoming fear - his proudest achievement over the last 20 years

In association with our friends at Digital-Life-Design (DLD), Europe’s iconic annual tech conference which next January celebrates its twentieth anniversary, we are starting a series of conversations with DLD speakers looking back over the last twenty years. First up is Silicon Valley entrepreneur, speaker and author John Hagel, who talked, quite openly, about his lifelong fear of fear and how he’s cured himself of this affliction over the last two decades.

John Hagel III has more than 40 years’ experience as a management consultant, author, speaker and entrepreneur. After recently retiring as a partner from Deloitte, McGraw Hill published in May 2021 his latest book, The Journey Beyond Fear, that addresses the psychology of change and he is developing a series of programs to help people navigate through change at many levels. John has founded a new company, Beyond Our Edge, LLC, that works with companies and people who are seeking to anticipate the future and achieve much greater impact. While at Deloitte, John was the founder and chairman of the Silicon Valley-based Deloitte Center for the Edge, focusing on identifying emerging business opportunities that are not yet on the CEO’s agenda. Before joining Deloitte, John was an independent consultant and writer and prior to that was a principal at McKinsey & Company and a leader of their Strategy Practice as well as the founder of their E-Commerce Practice. John has served as senior vice president of strategy at Atari, Inc., and is the founder of two Silicon Valley startups. John is also a faculty member at Singularity University where he gives frequent talks on the mounting performance pressure created by digital technology and promising approaches to help traditional companies make the transition from a linear to an exponential world. He is also on the Board of Trustees at the Santa Fe Institute, an organization that conducts leading edge research on complex adaptive systems. He has also led a number of initiatives regarding business transformation with the World Economic Forum. John is the author of The Power of Pull, published by Basic Books in April 2010. He is also the author of a series of best-selling business books, Net Gain, Net Worth, Out of the Box, and The Only Sustainable Edge. He is widely published and quoted in major business publications including The Economist, Fortune, Forbes, Business Week, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal, as well as general media like the New York Times, NBC and BBC. He has won two awards from Harvard Business Review for best articles in that publication and has been recognized as an industry thought leader by a variety of publications and institutions, including the World Economic Forum and Business Week. John has his own website at www.johnhagel.com, and for many years wrote personal blogs at www.edgeperspectives.typepad.com as well as contributing postings on the Harvard Business Review, Fortune and Techonomy websites. He is active in social media and can be followed on Twitter at @jhagel and on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/jhagel/ John holds a BA from Wesleyan University, a B.Phil. from Oxford University, and a JD and MBA from Harvard University. John Hagel has spent over 40 years in Silicon Valley and has experience as a management consultant, entrepreneur, speaker and author. He is driven by a desire to help individuals and institutions around the world to increase their impact in a rapidly changing world.

Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.

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TRANSCRIPT

KEEN: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the show. We're going to do things a little differently today. We're starting a new series on KEEN ON in association with my dear friends at the DLD conference. It's an annual conference held each year in Munich. My view? Certainly the best tech conference in Europe, if not in the world. And in January 2025, they're celebrating their 20th anniversary. And in association with DLD, we're talking to some of their most notable speakers about their experiences over the last 20 years. We're beginning with an old friend of mine, John Hagel, a very distinguished author, futurist. His last book was called The Journey Beyond Fear, and John spoke at DLD '16 about narratives and business. And I began our DLD KEEN ON conversation with John Hagel by asking him to cast his mind back to January 2005.

HAGEL: In January 2005, I was working as an independent consultant in Silicon Valley. I'd been there for 25 years already. I was fascinated with the degree to which digital technology was exponentially improving, and I was being aggressively recruited, at the time, by a large consulting firm, Deloitte, that wanted me to join. I was a bit resistant. I turned them down four times because I didn't want to go work for another large consulting firm. I'd been a partner with McKinsey before that, but ultimately they prevailed. They persuaded me that they would help me create a new research center that would be autonomous, even though it was part of Deloitte and it was really focused on trying to understand the long-term trends that are reshaping the global economy and what the implications are for people. And that was my passion, and I'm very grateful that I was able to pursue that.

KEEN: What was the global economy, John, like in 2005?

HAGEL: It was definitely becoming more and more connected. It was going through fundamental change even at that stage. I've come to call it "the big shift," but basically, some long-term trends that were playing out were creating mounting performance pressure on all of us. One form of pressure was intensifying competition on a global scale. Companies were competing with companies from around the world. Workers were competing with workers from around the world. So there was a lot of intensifying competition. The pace of change was accelerating. Things you thought you could count on were no longer there. And then, as if that weren't enough, all the connectivity we were creating...a small event in a faraway place in the world quickly cascades into an extreme, disruptive event. So it creates a lot of performance pressure on all people. And we were just in the early stages of that. I think we're actually still in the early stages of "the big shift." A lot more to come.

KEEN: What was it, John, about "the big shift?" It was your term, is still, I think, one of the best terms to describe the first quarter of the 21st century. What both most worried and excited you about "the big shift" in 2005? Back then, not today.

HAGEL: Well, at the time, I was starting to realize that fundamental change was going to be required in all companies, all organizations, governments, universities. And I was worried that that would be a challenge, that not many people really embrace that kind of change, and so how do you get people to make that transition? But on the other side, I was excited about the fact that the changes that we were seeing—I love paradox. And one of the paradoxes of the big shift is, I mentioned the mounting performance pressure as one of the trends and the big shift. Another trend was exponentially expanding opportunity. We can create far more value with far less resource, far more quickly, given all the connectivity that's been created. So the excitement was that if we understood the changes that were happening and were willing to make the changes, we could create value that would have never been imagined before.

KEEN: Back in 2005, John, what were the lessons of the past that we were trying to correct? History obviously always changes. Today, in 2025, we seem to be wanting to learn from, perhaps, 2005. But what were we reacting against in 2005?

HAGEL: Well, frankly, I think we're still reacting against it. But in 2005, the way I describe it is all new large institutions around the world, not just companies, but again, governments and universities and foundations, all the large organizations around the world were built on a model that I call scalable efficiency. The key to success is becoming more and more efficient and scale. Do things faster and cheaper. And hard to argue, because for over a century that model of scalable efficiency gave us all the global, large institutions we know around the world today. So, a huge success with that model. The challenge is that in a rapidly changing world, scalable efficiency becomes more and more inefficient. We're not able to respond to the changes that are going on. We're just focused on doing what we've always done faster and cheaper. So I think that's an interesting dilemma that we were confronting in 2005 and frankly still confronting.

KEEN: Were there organizations in particular back in 2005 that captured what you call this paradox of the great shift?

HAGEL: Yes. I think that one of the things that I was focused on—I wrote a number of books in the past 20 years, three books. And one of them was called The Only Sustainable Edge. And it was a notion that in a world of more rapid change, we need to focus on what I call scalable learning. And learning not in the form of sharing existing knowledge, not in the form of training programs, but learning in the form of creating new knowledge as we confront entirely new situations and figure out how to create value in those situations, and do that throughout the organization, not just in the research department or the product development group, but every department needs to be focused on scalable learning. And part of that, it's how do you reach out and connect with broader networks of third parties, rather than just try to do it all yourself inside your organization? And in that context, I was looking at companies in a very large part of the developing world, China, for example. There were companies that were pursuing really innovative approaches to scalable learning in global networks, where they were connecting in global networks and focusing on driving innovation and learning throughout the network. So that really inspired me with the notion that this is not only possible but necessary.

KEEN: John, one of the words that I always associate with your name is is "the edge." You popularized it, you were part of a group that focused on researching the impact of edge technologies in organizations. Why is this word "the edge" so important to making sense of the last 20 years?

HAGEL: Well, I actually founded the Center for the Edge, and it took me a while to get Deloitte to approve the title because they said, wait a minute, you're either the center or you're the edge. How can you be both? And again, I love paradox, but in the context of the question about what do we mean by edge, it was the belief that if you're looking for change that's coming into the world, start by looking at edges. It could be geographic edges, developing economies. It could be demographic edges, younger generations coming into the workforce or into the marketplace. It could be edges across disciplines and academic world, many different kinds of edges. But it's venture out into those edges and look for emerging things that have the potential to scale and become really significant as change agents. And I think that that's what drove us to really do our research, was to find those edges and learn from the edge.

KEEN: What did you believe in, John, in 2005, or is that an inappropriate question?

HAGEL: What did I believe in? Well, I believe that again, digital technology is a key catalyst, changing the world. As was mentioned, I've been in Silicon Valley for many decades, but I've also, while I've been based here in Silicon Valley, I've been working with large organizations around the world, so I've got a global perspective as well as focusing on the digital technology and how it's driving change. But I think it was a notion that, again, we are seeing some significant change that's happening. But I think that one of the things that I came to realize over time, because I was so focused on these opportunities and things that were emerging around the world and the need for change and the need for transformation. And I was encountering significant resistance from leaders of organizations and from people within the organization. When I talked about the need for change and transformation. And the thing that I learned, and has become a real focus for my work now, is rather than just focusing on strategy and business, focus on emotions. Focus on the emotions that are shaping our choices and actions. And one of the things I came to realize was that in a world of rapid change, the emotion of fear becomes more and more prevalent. And fear? Well, it's understandable. I think there are reasons for fear in a rapidly changing world. It's also very limiting. It holds you back. You become much more risk averse. You erode trust in other people. You don't want to look out into the future. You just want to focus on today. You need to find ways to move beyond the fear and cultivate other emotions that will help you to have much more impact that's meaningful to you and others. And that's become a real focus for me, is how do we make that journey beyond the fear? It was my most recent book is The Journey Beyond Fear, because I've come to believe that psychology and emotions are really the key that's going to determine how we move forward.

KEEN: That was very personable, John. And I know that you've had a lot of experience of fear in your own personal life as well as in a professional context. Do you think one of the narratives, perhaps the central story for you over the last 20 years, has been overcoming fear?

HAGEL: Yes. Well, I think that it certainly was a period of change for me and helped me to really reflect on how much the emotion of fear had been driving my life. But at the same time, I began to see that there were things that had really excited me throughout my life. And while they were quite different, you know, my first book was in 1976, and it was on alternative energy technologies. A little bit early, but throughout my life I had been excited about certain things, like alternative energy technologies, and when I stepped back and reflected, well, was I just shifting all over the place to different things, or was there a common element in all of these? I began to realize that what really excited me, and where my passion was, was in looking into the future and seeing emerging opportunities and helping to make people aware of those opportunities and ultimately motivate them to address those opportunities. And that was my passion and really helped me to overcome my fear, even though there's still fear there, it's never fully eliminated. But it's what really kept me going and keeps me going today.

KEEN: Your 20-year narrative, John seems to have been pretty successful. You've learned a lot. You've published a lot. You succeeded in many ways. But that personal narrative, is that reflected in the world itself? It seems in some ways, certainly according to the pessimists who seem to be dominant these days in our zeitgeist, the world is taking a step back. If John Hagel took a step forward between 2005 and 2025, the world has taken a step back. Is that fair?

HAGEL: No, I think it's very fair. I think that if I had to generalize, and obviously generalizations need some qualification, but generalizing, I would say that over the past 20 years, the emotion of fear has become more and more prevalent around the world. At the highest levels of organizations, lowest levels out in the communities. And again, while I think it's understandable, I think it's a very limiting emotion, and it's creating more and more challenge for us in terms of: how do we really embrace the change that's going to be required and capture the opportunities that are available to us? So I think that it's become a real focus for me and again, was the motivation for me to write the book The Journey Beyond Fear. I'm wanting to help people, first of all, acknowledge the fear, because I think many people don't even want to admit that they're afraid. And we live in cultures where if you say you're afraid, you're a weakling. But acknowledge the fear, recognize its limits, and find ways to move forward beyond it. And that's what I'm focused on now.

KEEN: Is that fear, John, has it been most clearly manifested over the last 20 years in politics, particularly in the growth of liberal populism, which, in many people's views, you may or may not agree with it, is the way in which politicians take advantage of the culture of fear?

HAGEL: It's complicated. I think there are factors that are helping to intensify the fear. A bit controversial or provocative. But I actually, in the United States, I believe both sides of our political spectrum are equally guilty in the sense that they have both focused on what I call "threat-based narratives," the enemies coming together. So, we're all going to die. We need to mobilize now and resist, or we're going to die. The enemy differs depending on which side you're on, but it's all about the threat. The enemy feeds the fear. And you look at our news media and challenge people to say, Tell me, when was the last time you heard a good news story? It's all about the latest catastrophe. Somewhere in the world where people have died and more are going to die. And so I think that there are factors that are feeding the fear, unfortunately, and making it an even more challenging emotion to overcome.

KEEN: John, you spoke at DLD in 2016, and the focus of your talk was on storytelling, on the narrative of fear, on telling a good story. Is that the key to addressing so much of the fear in the world today, is telling a different story?

HAGEL: Well, I have to be careful because I use words with different meanings than most people do. When I when I say narrative, most people say, you're talking about stories. Yeah, we know about stories. No, I believe there's an important distinction between stories and narratives. So for me, stories are self-contained. They have a beginning, a middle and an end to them. The end, the stories over. And the story is about me, the storyteller, or it's about some other people, real or imagined. It's not about you. In contrast, for me, a narrative is open ended. There's some big threat or opportunity out in the future. Not clear whether it's going to be achieved or not. And the resolution of the narrative hinges on you. It's a call to action to say, your choices, your actions are going to help determine how this narrative plays out. And again, I believe we've become increasingly dominated around the world by threat-based narratives. When we look into the future, there are huge threats, big challenges. Who's focused on the really big opportunities, inspiring opportunities, that could bring us all together? And what amazing things we could accomplish. So, I have become a strong believer that what I call opportunity-based narratives can become a powerful catalyst to help us move beyond the fear and start to cultivate an emotion that I call the passion of the explorer, that will help people to really have much more impact in a rapidly changing world.

KEEN: In thinking about this alternative narrative, I'm thinking about it perhaps in architectural terms. Might we imagine this to be storytelling from the edge, or at least an architecture, a narrative architecture, which is built around the edge rather than some imaginary center?

HAGEL: Well, again, I want to make the distinction between stories and narratives. I'm talking about narratives.

KEEN: Right. Your idea of a narrative is more profound. It's deeper than the way most of us think about narratives. I take your point.

HAGEL: Yes, I want to be explicit about that because—and not to dismiss the power of stories, I think stories can be very useful as well. But in making The Journey Beyond Fear—one of the things I should mention is, I've studied, throughout history, movements for social change in different parts of the world, different periods of history. And one of the things that I think is interesting is, the most successful movements for social change around the world throughout history, have been driven by what I describe as an opportunity-based narrative. The leaders were focused on a really inspiring opportunity that could bring people together and excite them. Just one small example that many people here in the U.S., at least, are familiar with is Martin Luther King's speech in Washington, D.C., "I Have a Dream." Amazing things we could accomplish. And yes, there are obstacles and barriers, absolutely. But the focus was on the opportunity of coming together and achieving amazing things.

KEEN: John, you and I have talked about this before. Perhaps the most influential modern philosopher is Thomas Hobbes, 17th-century author of Leviathan. He made fear, and I think in many ways his theory of the world was built around his life, he was a very fearful man, and he didn't think fear was a bad thing. He actually thought it was a good thing for humans to recognize the value of fear. I don't want to revisit Hobbes. I know you're not a political philosopher, but at the same time, is there value to fear? Does it have any value at all, or your view, do we really need to simply overcome it and move beyond it?

HAGEL: No. No. I am not in any way suggesting we will eliminate it. I believe fear is something that's intrinsic. And an example I give—and this ties to another emotion I mentioned briefly, passion of the explorer. I've come to believe that if we're really going to achieve significant impact in a rapidly changing world, we need to cultivate a very specific form of passion, the passion of the explorer. And I've studied this in many different domains, but one interesting domain is extreme sports. I've spent a lot of time with big wave surfers. Interesting thing, if you talk to a big wave surfer as they're paddling out to ride the next big wave, they're afraid. They know that people have not only fallen off their board, but have died riding those waves. So they're afraid, and they're using the fear to focus on what are the risks, how can I manage the risks? But they are paddling with Excitement. To get out, to ride that wave. They're not letting the fear dominate them. And so I think that's the interesting dynamic and relationship that needs to be established, to use the fear to focus on the risks. But don't let it stop you from making significant change.

KEEN: You've clearly learned a great deal over the last 20 years, John. Do you have any regrets, though? Have you made mistakes? Are there things you wish you'd done that you haven't?

HAGEL: You know, I think that it's complicated. I do believe that the big mistake in the early days was really focusing so much on the opportunities that were being, created and not recognizing the role of emotions in preventing us from addressing those opportunities. And so it's led to a significant shift in my life and my thinking and my work around...and I'm not ignoring the opportunities, I'm continuing to explore the opportunities. But at the same time, I'm really focused on how we address the obstacles and barriers that are preventing us from getting to those opportunities. And that's where I'm spending more and more of my time.

KEEN: When we think back to 2005, most of the same big tech companies were around. Amazon, Google, Microsoft. Facebook was just beginning. There was a very positive, broadly, outlook on tech those days. Today, in 2025, things have changed dramatically. Is that fair, do you think?

HAGEL: Well, again, it's complicated. I think that this is one of the areas where fear is really demonstrating itself, anything large and big. One of the big issues that I see, it's not just tech, by the way, I mean, there are surveys around the world that...our trust in large institutions around the world is eroding at a very rapid rate. And when I say this to people that they nod their heads. They've all seen the surveys. Very few people that I know of have asked the question, why? What's driving that erosion of trust? And I believe I've come to believe, based on the research I've done, that a big factor is fear, the emotion of fear, which leads to erosion of trust. And so we need to really understand, why are we so fearful and what can we do to address it? And I don't want to dismiss, I think there are issues, too, in terms of, and I'll just mention quickly, in technology, one of the big issues with the large tech companies is they tend to be supported by advertising models and commission-based models, where they're being paid by the advertiser and the vendors, and the user of the technology, you're the product. And so I think more and more people are beginning to realize that a tech company's primary loyalty is not to you as the user, it's to the people who are paying all the bills. So, I think there are reasons for erosion of trust. But I do think that we need to recognize that fear is a significant factor as well.

KEEN: Have you changed your own view of the potential of technology over the last 20 years? You've been in Silicon Valley for a long time, John. You're one of the most distinguished, respected people. You're not a billionaire type, so you're not just a drum beater. But at the same time, you're a man who's not just naturally negative and skeptical. Do you think you're more or less optimistic and positive about the impact of tech, particularly big tech, on the world today in 2025 than you were in 2005?

HAGEL: Good question. I think that I'm by nature an optimist, so I'm always looking at opportunities in the future. And I think that technology can still produce amazing new opportunities. One of the interesting things to me—it's not getting as much attention as I think it should is the role of technology innovation in biology and health and wellness. Helping us to live longer, healthier, better lives. And I think we're just in the earliest stages of that technology being developed. But rather than technology being outside us, technology is increasingly going to be inside us and helping us to lead much fuller lives. And so I'm very optimistic about that. And I do believe that the world is changing at a rapid rate, and I'm a believer that we're going to see major new technology companies emerge. And a lot of the current technology leaders will be disrupted and cast to the side. So, more change to come.

KEEN: Are there individuals over the last 20 years who have, in your mind, captured the spirit of the age? When one thinks of Elon Musk, for example, he seems to be someone immune from fear. For better or worse—he's not always the most popular man in the world, certainly the richest man in the world. But are there men—and they tend to be men, perhaps women—over the last 20 years, who, for you, have captured all the best and, perhaps some of the worst, of world history in this first quarter of the 21st century?

HAGEL: Wow. Well, in that context, I want to answer the question I get from a lot of people since I've been in Silicon Valley for so long is: how do you explain the continued success of Silicon Valley for so many decades? And most people, when confronted with that question, will say, well, it's the venture capitalists, it's the universities, it's the infrastructure. No, I believe that the success of Silicon Valley is being driven by an opportunity-base narrative, which is fundamentally—we have exponentially expanding digital technology that can enable us to change the world for the better. But it's not going to happen automatically. You need to come to Silicon Valley. Will you come? It's the reason why the majority of successful entrepreneurs and Silicon Valley—most people don't know this—the majority of successful entrepreneurs were not born in the United States, much less in Silicon Valley. They were drawn here from all over the world. And it's because they were driven by, again, a very specific passion that I call the passion of the explorer. And that's where they're excited about new territory and are excited about venturing out on the edges, excited about finding ways to have more and more impact that's meaningful to people. And I think that's really been a continuing driver of success in the Valley.

KEEN: John, you live in the North Bay, just north of San Francisco, over the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This part of the world was discovered by one of the great explorers in world history, Francis Drake. And there's a wonderful bay not too far from where you live called the Drake Bay. I've walked around there. Is this concept that you introduced called the "explorer," is it a feature of Western civilization? Is Sir Francis Drake, or was Sir Francis Drake, an early example of this?

HAGEL: You know, I wouldn't say Western civilization. I would say of humanity in general. I mean, again, I think that one of the things that I continually hear from people is fear is what helped us stay alive and made us human. And my response to that is, well, if we were completely driven by fear, we would still be living in the jungle, hiding from the tigers and the lions. What happened? We had a desire to explore and to see new things and to try new things. And it led to the emergence of agriculture civilizations around the world. And it was a process of exploration, but it really motivated a number of people so that they would move out and make progress. And I think we're just still exploring.

KEEN: I mentioned, John, you talked about DLD in 2016. I know you're a big fan of the event, Europe's top innovation—I wouldn't call it a summit, it's a gathering of influencers like yourself. Over this last 20 years, the American economy has, for better or worse, marched ahead, and Europe has become increasingly stagnant. The German economy, the EU's economy, the United Kingdom's economy...In your view, is an important development over the last 20 years...has Europe—broadly, I know you can't talk about all individuals—but has Europe lost the inspiration of exploring that you're such a believer in?

HAGEL: You know, I'm not sure I would generalize about Europe as a region in that regard. I think there are interesting parts of Europe that are doing some very interesting and innovative things. And so I think the challenge is that, again, we live in a world, a global economy, where competition is intensifying on a global scale. And Europe in general has failed to really respond effectively to that and maintain ways of of creating more and more value in that kind of world. So again, I'm an optimist, and I'm hopeful that people will see that potential. But right now, what I'm seeing in Europe and the rest of the world is the emotion of fear holding people back and saying, no, no, let's just hold on to what we have and find ways to make it through. And unfortunately, I think that's the wrong the wrong response.

KEEN: I know it's easy to return to 2005, and it's impossible in practice. But had you gone back to John Hagel in 2005, do you think you'd be surprised by the power of the American innovation economy and the relative weakness of the European one?

HAGEL: That's a good question. I'm not sure. I wasn't really forecasting particular geographies as areas that would grow and areas that wouldn't grow. I did see, again, an expanding global economy wherein there is increasing competition from other parts of the world, non-European, non-U.S., and so the challenge was how do we respond to that? And that's the issue that we're facing.

KEEN: That's the issue indeed, we are facing, John. You and I are talking in November of 2024 in anticipation of the DLD 20-year anniversary of their event in January 2025. Where are we in late 2024 in the world? How would you summarize our situation?

HAGEL: Well, again, I think it's a paradox. I think at one level, the situation is very unfortunate in the sense that the emotion of fear is dominating every country in the world. I don't see any countries where it's really the excitement and passion that's driving people. But on the other side, I also see the technology and trends in the world are creating more and more opportunity to to create value at exponential levels. And so I'm, again, an optimist and I'm hopeful that we can find ways to move beyond the fear and see the opportunities and pursue them and create the value that's there to be created.

KEEN: I didn't see that fear, certainly in Silicon Valley, John, with the billions of dollars now going into the AI economy, to the booming biotech sector and the other technology sectors that you've talked about. Is there fear, in Silicon Valley, do you see it?

HAGEL: Well, again, I think Silicon Valley stands out because many, if not all, the entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley were drawn here by passion and excitement to create more and more value. And yes, they have fear. If you talk to them, they're afraid the startup could collapse next month. Their customers could go away. But they're driven by that excitement of having that kind of impact. And I think that's what explains the continued success of Silicon Valley. But it stands out as one of those few areas where passion, and specifically, again, the passion of the explorer—and I haven't gone into detailed definition of what I mean by that, but it's based on research—that passion of the explorer that will help people to move beyond the fear and achieve impact that's much more meaningful to them.

KEEN: John if we'd been talking in 2005, I don't suppose you, or most analysts of the Future of the Edge, whatever you want to describe it, would have brought up AI as being central. Today, of course, it's all anyone talks about in late 2024, early 2025. If you put your futurist on, and you've mentioned biotech...there are other technologies which have the potential to take off, quantum, for example. What technology do you think is most underrated in terms of imagining the next 20 years?

HAGEL: Well, again, I would probably go to biotech as the area that is not getting as much attention as it should, because I believe it has the potential. There is an expression in Silicon Valley, "the longevity escape velocity." It's this notion that with this technology, we will be able, ultimately, to basically live forever. We won't have to worry about dying. And not just living forever, but being healthy and more vibrant and flourishing more than we've ever flourished in the past. And I think that's being underestimated as a potential driver of significant change in our lives and in our society.

KEEN: Some people will hear that, John, and be very fearful of that. And lots of novels and stories and music have been made suggesting that if we live forever, life will become a nightmare. We'll be bored by everything and everyone. Should we, in any way, be fearful of that world you're describing?

HAGEL: And again, you know, sure, if we're going to live our lives in fear for an eternity, yes, we should be afraid of living our lives in fear. But I believe as human beings, we all have within us the potential for that passion that I described, the passion of the explorer, which is never ending. No matter how much impact you achieve, if you're pursuing that passion, you're driven to have even more impact. What can I do to have even more impact? And excited about it and fulfilled by it. This is nourishing. I think people who have this passion will want to live forever. They will be excited to live forever. And we all have the potential to find that passion within us. By the way, I would just say we I get a lot of pushback. Yes, John, come on. Some of us are capable of this passion, but most of us just want to be told what to do and have the security of an income. My response is, let's go to a playground and look at children 5 or 6 years old. Show me one that doesn't have that kind of excitement about exploring and coming together and trying new things, seeing the things. We all had it as children. What happened to us? We went to school and we were taught by the teacher, "Just listen to the teacher. Memorize what the teacher has to say and show on the exam. So you've memorized it." I've studied the US public school system. It was explicitly designed to prepare us for work environments where the key was just to read the manual, follow the manual, do what's assigned. Passion is suspect, passionate people ask too many questions. Passionate people deviate from the script, they take too many risks. Why would you want passionate people? Just get people who will do their job. And so I think, back to your question about AI, again, I think there is obviously a lot of fear about AI. And one of the reasons for the fear is when I talk to executives, senior executives, about AI, I get two questions. First, how quickly can I automate with AI? And secondly, how many jobs can I eliminate with AI? It's all about scalable efficiency, faster and cheaper. I believe the role of AI is to help us become human again. To take away all of that work, the routine tasks, highly standardized, routine tasks that most of us do on a daily basis, and free us up to actually explore and find ways to create new value and have impact that's meaningful to us. That's exciting.

KEEN: If you're right, John, if the next 20 years are ones where there is a profound biotech revolution—and we may not live forever, but certainly will live longer and longer lives—what do we need to address? Seems to me as if one area would be inequality, given that already in America, the difference between how long people live in on the coasts, in California or New York, are quite different from the hinterland. Does this concern you, if indeed you're right? What are the the biggest threats and challenges in a world where longevity is the central reality?

HAGEL: Now, again, you talk about threats and challenges. I would talk about opportunities. The opportunities are to help everyone achieve more, to help them all find their passion, help them all find ways to earn income from their passion and achieve more impact that's meaningful to them and to others. And yes, there are issues like inequality, climate change, all the rest, limited resources in the world. But I believe with technology and innovation, we can overcome all those obstacles and achieve amazing results for everyone.

KEEN: Finally, John, you're naturally an optimist. So, for me to ask you to put on your rose-tinted glasses might be slightly inappropriate, but if you were to think most positively about the future, in 20 years’ time in 2045, if DLD celebrates its 40th anniversary, what kind of world could this be? Imagine the best kind of world. Would it be like a giant kindergarten? Like people are running around and excited all the time before the teachers got their hands on it?

HAGEL: You know, my belief is that if we can really unleash this passion and excitement about driving change and creating more value, that we can create a world where every living thing flourishes. Not just human beings, not just animals, plants, every living being flourishing in ways that would have been unimaginable 20 years earlier, because we're all creating an environment that helps us to flourish. And to me, that's what's really the potential and exciting.

KEEN: Do you think the next 20 years will bring more change than the previous 20 years?

HAGEL: It's going to bring a lot of change. I suspect it's going to be even more change, because we're talking about exponential change and change exponentially increases over time.

KEEN: Well, John Hagel, who spoke at DLD in 2016, a great friend of the conference, a real honor, John, and a pleasure. And I hope we will meet again in 2045 to see whether or not you were right. Thank you so much.

HAGEL: Excellent. Thank you.

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