Money Stuff: The Podcast Flying High in Bird Heaven: MSTR, PSUS, ETF
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Dec 5, 2025 Matt and Katie dive into the intriguing world of corporate holiday parties and shareholder meetings. They explore the end of the Strategy premium narrative and its impact on markets. The hosts discuss Bill Ackman's closed-end fund ambitions and his preference for permanent capital over ETFs. Innovations like Goldman's purchase of Innovator and the appeal of buffer ETFs take center stage. They also debate critiques of buffer ETFs, including insights from Cliff Asness, making for a lively financial conversation.
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Strategy Trade Has Completed Its Arc
- The Strategy (MicroStrategy) narrative arc peaked and is now unwinding as its stock trades near NAV.
- The premium-driven arbitrage of selling Bitcoin-equivalent stock no longer reliably works.
Fixed Income Costs Turned Accretive Trade Risky
- MicroStrategy built up large fixed-income obligations that made buying Bitcoin accretive when BTC rose.
- When Bitcoin falls, those coupon/dividend payments become a heavy cash burden forcing capital raises or asset sales.
Premium vs Discount Dictates Sell Choice
- If a company's stock trades at a premium you sell equity; if at a discount you sell the underlying asset.
- MicroStrategy's logical choice at a discount is selling Bitcoin and buying back stock, reversing the original trade.