Simply Bitcoin Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Just Failed (Here’s Why That Matters) | Simply SatoSHE
Jan 2, 2026
The legendary Bitcoin four-year cycle may have hit a dead end. 2025 brought surprising price action with no euphoric highs or steep crashes. Are institutions and macro forces reshaping Bitcoin's landscape? Experts debate if halvings still matter amid changing market dynamics. The conversation highlights how Bitcoin's evolving nature might lead to new price patterns and volatility changes. Will regulatory improvements boost 2026 insights? Dive into the future of Bitcoin as it might just be maturing into something more powerful.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Halving Predicts Supply, Not Price Certainty
- The four-year halving rhythm predicted supply mechanics, not precise price moves.
- Only four halvings exist, so past patterns lack statistical significance.
Institutions And Macro Rewrote Market Behavior
- Institutional capital and spot ETFs introduced slow, patient buying that dampens volatility.
- Liquidity cycles and global macro now matter more than halvings alone.
Expect Institutional Rebalancing To Stabilize Dips
- Recognize institutions buy into plan documents and rebalance into dips.
- Account for this stabilizing demand when assessing future volatility.