Foreign Policy Live Can China Catch Up on AI?
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Jun 13, 2025 
Jared Cohen and George Lee from the Goldman Sachs Global Institute discuss the escalating AI rivalry between China and the United States. They explore how China's advancements in AI and its rare earths exports could shift the balance of power. The conversation dives into the unpredictability of the tech competition, U.S. export controls, and the impact on global supply chains. They also examine geopolitical dynamics, including the role of swing states like India and Vietnam, and emphasize the need for dialogue to set international AI norms.
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China's Rare Earths Monopoly
- China controls nearly 92% of rare earth mineral refining and processing, crucial for advanced tech manufacturing.
- This monopoly gives China significant power in the global tech and AI supply chains.
China's Generative AI Pivot
- China initially showed ambivalence toward generative AI due to control concerns but then pivoted to fully embrace and invest in it.
- This shift integrates AI with China's strengths in data, robotics, and payments, intensifying the race with the U.S.
No Clear AI Race Winner
- The U.S.-China AI race is a continuous competition with no definitive winner.
- Both countries may achieve temporary advantages, resulting in a competitive coexistence rather than outright victory.