Quantitative Investing, Inflation and the Macroeconomy
Oct 11, 2023
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Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, discusses topics such as the recent rise of inflation, macroeconomics, capital market returns, value versus growth stocks, factor timing, index investing, the Federal Reserve's handling of inflation, the relationship between hurricanes, aging demographics, and market timing, the inverted yield curve and its impact, the influence of neoclassical and Keynesian thinking on investing, energy stocks and their value status, and technology's ability to address climate change.
The Federal Reserve should pay more attention to the long bond yield as an indicator for setting interest rates in response to inflation.
Diversifying outside the US and investing in emerging markets and developed ex-US value stocks can provide attractive valuations for investors.
Fundamental indexing, with its benefits of rebalancing alpha and a value tilt, should be considered for creating better indexes.
Deep dives
Inflation and Fed Policy
The podcast discusses the cause of inflation, highlighting that it is a result of supply and demand dynamics. The speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve's response to inflation and suggests that the central bank should pay more attention to the long bond yield as an indicator for setting interest rates.
Value Investing and Asset Classes
The podcast emphasizes the importance of value investing and suggests that investors should consider the value factor when constructing their portfolios. It also recommends diversifying outside the US and investing in assets that are currently trading at attractive valuations, such as emerging markets and developed ex-US value stocks.
The Case for Fundamental Indexing
The podcast introduces the concept of fundamental indexing, which aims to mirror the look and composition of the macroeconomy. It highlights the benefits of fundamental indexing, including rebalancing alpha and a value tilt, and suggests that indexers should consider smarter strategies for adding and deleting stocks to create better indexes.
Identifying Bubbles in Real Time
The podcast episode discusses the ability to identify bubbles or anti-bubbles in real time. The speaker talks about using a workable definition for the term 'bubble,' which involves making implausible assumptions for future growth to justify today's prices. By this definition, several popular stocks, including FANG stocks, have been identified as bubble stocks. The speaker emphasizes the importance of avoiding overpricing and the potential dangers of investing in bubble stocks.
The Prospects of Value Investing
The podcast episode delves into the outlook for value investing and its long-term prospects. The speaker highlights two main sources of alpha in value investing: migration and yield difference. Migration refers to the constant rebalancing of stocks, with growth stocks falling out of favor and being replaced by new high-flyers, while value stocks come back into favor and offer more earnings and book value for each investment. The speaker also mentions the importance of yield in value stocks. Despite value investing's challenging past 15 years, the speaker believes in its structural advantages and argues that the gap between growth and value stocks is still in the cheapest quintile ever, making value investing a worthwhile strategy.
Jon Hartley interviewed Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, at the Economic Club of Miami on December 3, 2022. Topics discussed include the recent rise of inflation, macroeconomics, capital market returns, value versus growth stocks, factor timing, and index investing among many other topics.