In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)

Jan 12, 2025

Delve into the complex feelings of Russians and Ukrainians towards the war, revealing a strong desire for victory on both sides. Explore the gap between public declarations and true sentiments, alongside the strategic messaging from leaders. Discover how demographic factors shape attitudes about negotiations and territorial issues, amidst growing fatigue for peace talks. Gain insights into the balancing act military leaders face amid public discontent, highlighting the vital role of sociological understanding in navigating this conflict.

42:21

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Quick takeaways

A significant portion of both Russians and Ukrainians show support for military actions while grappling with complex sentiments conditioned by social pressures and war fatigue.

Recent surveys indicate a growing desire for negotiations among both populations, but mutual expectations for concessions create inherent tensions obstructing potential peace talks.

Deep dives

Public Opinion on the War

A significant majority of both Russians and Ukrainians express strong support for their respective positions in the ongoing war. Polls indicate that between 70% to 80% of Russians support military actions, while many Ukrainians insist on continuing the war until territorial boundaries are restored to pre-2022 positions or even further back to pre-1991 boundaries including Crimea. However, this overwhelming support may not reflect genuine sentiments, as many responses can be influenced by social pressures, particularly in Russia's authoritarian environment. Consequently, this creates a complex narrative where public statements do not necessarily align with private beliefs or behaviors.

Intro

3min

Navigating Public Opinion in War: Performative Support and Strategic Messaging

5min

Nuances of Public Sentiment in the Ukraine Conflict

28min

Public Opinion and Peace Negotiations in War

5min

Insights into Public Opinion Amidst Conflict

2min

We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.

The various articles and surveys I cite are:

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

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