Talking Shop with Rubin Miller (EP.238)

Jan 7, 2026

Rubin Miller, an investment adviser and the voice behind the blog 'Fortunes and Frictions,' prepares investors for long-term success. He highlights the pitfalls of relying on short-term market predictions, urging a focus on behavioral finance and the unrecognized risks investors face. Rubin advocates for using ranges and probabilities when setting financial plans, stressing the importance of understanding the distinct roles of bonds and stocks. With clarity around narratives driving mistakes, he emphasizes how well-structured plans can withstand market noise.

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INSIGHT

Forecasts Mislead More Than They Help

Short-term market forecasts for risky assets are mostly unforecastable and often mislead investors.
Financial planners should use long-term ranges and probabilities rather than precise one-year point forecasts.

ADVICE

Use Wide Ranges For Stock Assumptions

Use wide ranges for long-term stock return assumptions instead of precise figures.
Prefer 8–10% nominal long-term stock ranges and widen when valuation concerns exist.

INSIGHT

Stocks Are One Tool; Weight Matters

Stocks are a single tool: ownership of companies to grow capital.
Portfolio differences should come from asset weights, not dramatically different stock selections.

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In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Rubin Miller for an unscripted conversation about why market forecasts fail, how advisors actually set return assumptions, and where investors most often misunderstand risk. We move freely from prediction season and capital market assumptions to investor behavior, bonds, and cash—focusing less on what markets will do next and more on how to build a plan you can stick with when narratives get loud.

Listen and learn:

► Why short-term market predictions distract from what really drives long-term outcomes

► How ranges and probabilities lead to better financial plans than point forecasts

► What most investors get wrong about bonds, cash, and "playing it safe"

► Why the biggest investing mistakes come from narratives, not numbers

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

[02:00] – Market Forecasting and "Prediction Season": Why One-Year Outlooks Mislead

[03:10] – Financial Planning Return Assumptions: Using Ranges and Probabilities (Not Point Estimates)

[06:41] – Portfolio Construction Basics: Stocks Are Stocks, Bonds Are Tools

[15:56] – Setting Investor Expectations: What Forecasts Can and Can't Do

[21:01] – Behavioral Finance in Real Time: Volatility vs the Narrative Investors Fear

[23:45] – Market Timing Bias: "I Knew This Would Happen" and Why It's Dangerous

[29:39] – Risk Management: Probability vs Magnitude (How Investors Blow Up a Good Plan)

[32:21] – Bond Strategy: Building a Portfolio You Can Stick With (Not the Highest Return)

[38:30] – Cash Management: Ultra-Short Bond Funds, HYSAs, and the 2022 Hangover

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com ⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

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