Astral Codex Ten Podcast Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest
Dec 2, 2025
Get ready for an exciting forecasting contest where participants can suggest intriguing questions for 2026 outcomes! Learn the ideal format for submissions, emphasizing clarity and specific metrics. Discover how to create objective questions that can be resolved by year-end, like tracking Congressional approval ratings. Plus, this year’s competition will feature AI bots going head-to-head with human forecasters for prizes. Don't miss your chance to contribute and win cash rewards!
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Write Precise, Verifiable Forecast Questions
- Submit clear, verifiable forecasting questions for 2026 that resolve by year-end.
- Specify exact measurement sources and dates to avoid ambiguity and improve forecastability.
Well-Specified Questions Attract Many Forecasters
- The prior year's contest attracted thousands of forecasters and diverse topics.
- This scale suggests well-specified questions can engage large forecasting communities.
Anchor Questions To Specific Data Sources
- Prefer questions tied to named data sources or trackers to reduce interpretation disputes.
- Example: tie to the first NYT Congressional Approval Tracker update after a date.