Jeffrey Ding: How Can We Beat China? Build AI People Want
Nov 18, 2024
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Jeffrey Ding, an author and expert on technology's role in global power dynamics, dives into the crucial topic of AI development and diffusion. He contrasts the US and China’s approaches to AI skill formation, arguing for a broader recognition of everyday engineers. The conversation touches on historical technological implications on geopolitics and warns against the 'Fortress America' mindset, which inflates threats from China. Ding advocates for collaborative innovation policies that embrace incremental advancements to maintain competitive edge in the tech landscape.
Effective technology diffusion, rather than mere innovation, is essential for enhancing a country's economic productivity and global competitiveness.
Historical contexts, like the U.S. response to the Soviet Union's Sputnik launch, highlight the importance of integrating technology across industries.
The rivalry between the U.S. and China in AI development emphasizes the need for a larger pool of engineers for widespread technology implementation.
Deep dives
The Shift from Innovation to Diffusion
The conventional belief in technological advances often emphasizes innovation, highlighting heroic inventors and groundbreaking discoveries. However, the podcast argues that diffusion, the spread and adoption of technology, plays a crucial role in determining economic productivity. For general purpose technologies (GPTs), such as electricity and AI, it's not merely the invention that matters but how effectively a country can diffuse these technologies across industries. The real power lies in widening the base of engineering talent and ensuring effective integration of technologies into the economy.
Lessons from the Sputnik Moment
The discussion highlights the historical context of the Soviet Union's Sputnik launch as a pivotal moment that mobilized American society around fear of falling behind in technological innovation. Despite producing a significant number of scientists and engineers, the Soviet Union struggled with the diffusion of innovations across its economy. In contrast, the U.S. effectively spread satellite technology, which enhanced its productivity and competitive edge. This underscores the importance of not just producing innovators but also creating mechanisms for widespread adoption of technology.
Examining Historical Industrial Revolutions
The conversation delves into the Second Industrial Revolution, emphasizing that the United States did not lead in research and development at the time but excelled in the adoption of technologies. Innovations like interchangeable parts manufacturing drove productivity and led the U.S. to economic prominence. This historical example illustrates how even if a country is not at the forefront of technology creation, it can still gain a competitive advantage through effective diffusion. The ability to broaden mechanical engineering talent was critical in implementing these advancements at scale.
Current U.S.-China AI Competition
The podcast assesses the current competition between the U.S. and China regarding AI development and implementation. Contrary to common narratives, evidence suggests that the U.S. is positioned to outpace China in the diffusion of AI technology across its economy. A key factor contributing to this advantage is the greater number of institutions in the U.S. that train engineers, which allows for a broader base of talent. The focus should shift from merely attracting top talent to ensuring a larger pool of average engineers who can effectively utilize and implement AI innovations.
Challenges of Policy and Open Source Initiatives
The discussion reflects on the balance between fostering an open-source AI ecosystem and the risks of technology leakage to rivals like China. While open-source models promote diffusion and accessibility, there are concerns about security and competitive disadvantages. The podcast suggests that policies supporting innovation need to also prioritize studies and investment in broadening access to technology development and implementation. There is a call for a reevaluation of the Fortress America approach in favor of fostering diffusion and collaboration to enhance technological capabilities.