The discussion tackles the fear that price deflation could stifle lending and investment. It emphatically argues that recent trends in cryptocurrencies and precious metals, like Bitcoin and gold, offer a different perspective. Examples such as wine production illustrate how falling prices can still lead to robust returns. The conversation also prompts a reassessment of traditional economic views, suggesting that a shrinking monetary supply could coexist with viable investment opportunities.
Deflation does not inhibit investment as demonstrated by continued consumer spending on technology despite falling prices.
The health of the economy can improve with deflation if real output increases, challenging the notion that price decreases signify economic trouble.
Deep dives
Understanding Deflation and Its Impact on Investment
Deflation refers to the decrease in the general price level of goods and services, which raises concerns about its implications for investment. The fear is that if prices continually fall, consumers might decide to delay purchases, anticipating even lower prices in the future. However, this perspective is flawed, as demonstrated by the example of technology, where consumers continue to buy computers despite their prices decreasing over time. Thus, the perceived disincentive to spend money during periods of deflation does not necessarily hinder purchasing behavior.
The Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation
The podcast highlights the connection between nominal interest rates and inflation rates using hypothetical scenarios. When consumer prices are stable, nominal interest rates align with real interest rates, as demonstrated by a loan example showing a 2% nominal rate resulting in a 2% real return. However, in an inflationary environment, the nominal interest rate must rise to compensate for the diminishing purchasing power of money. Conversely, with falling prices, nominal rates may need to be negative to maintain a real return, complicating the investment landscape.
Challenges of Negative Nominal Interest Rates
One of the key challenges posed by significant deflation is the potential for negative nominal interest rates, which can discourage lending and investment. If a lender receives less in return than the original loan amount due to falling consumer prices, it raises the question of why someone would lend money instead of holding cash. The implication is a difficulty in incentivizing savings or investment when borrowers may offer less than the amount loaned. This concern underlines the importance of maintaining an environment that encourages positive nominal interest rates, which can support economic activity.
The Role of Real Output and Economic Growth
The podcast argues that falling prices do not inherently signal economic trouble if real output increases at a faster pace. If the economy produces more goods and services, a fixed money supply will naturally lead to lower prices without impairing investment. In fact, the two scenarios of rising real output or a shrinking money supply can coexist without hindering economic health. This perspective reframes the concern over deflation, suggesting that economic expansion can flourish even in environments of price decreases, provided there are significant advancements in production capabilities.
One of the common worries about a hard money like gold or Bitcoin is that large price deflation could make lending and investment impossible because nominal interest rates can't go below 0%. Bob explains why these fears are invalid.
The Charts Used in This Episode Can Be Viewed Here: Mises.org/HAP491a
The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard’s, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree
Join us May 15–17, 2025, at the Mises Institute for our Revisionist History of War Conference: Mises.org/RHW
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode