Halftime Report The Post-Powell Playbook 8/22/25
Aug 22, 2025
Jim Laventhal, a market analyst, shares insights on investment opportunities amid shifting market trends. Kevin Simpson, an investment advisor, discusses specific stock picks, including tech giants like Oracle and Uber. Hedge fund manager Steve Weiss provides a take on market dynamics following Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. CNBC's Steve Leesman gives live updates and analysis, emphasizing the implications for interest rates. The discussion also dives into sector-specific strategies and the impact of economic indicators on investments.
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Powell's 'May' Shifted Market Expectations
- Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole remarks opened the door to a rate cut by saying policy "may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
- Markets interpreted that phrase as a meaningful shift and quickly priced in a high probability of a September cut.
Cuts Are Conditional, Not Guaranteed
- Powell left many caveats and emphasized inflation expectations, creating conditional room for cuts but not a guaranteed pivot.
- The Fed will watch upcoming data like payrolls, PPI, and CPI before committing to rate moves.
Labor Force Changes Complicate Fed Maths
- The Fed is rethinking the payroll growth needed to keep unemployment steady because labor force dynamics (immigration/enforcement) have changed.
- That recalibration makes traditional labor measures less reliable for policy decisions.