The Writ
Ep. #128: Poll deep dive with David Coletto, byelection edition
Jun 21, 2024
David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data, discusses polling data on Toronto byelection, Trudeau's leadership, and comparisons to past elections. They analyze party loyalty, demographics, and voter dynamics in Toronto St. Paul's. The episode also covers the Conservative lead, potential implications for the next election, and challenges faced by the Liberal Party.
32:13
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Quick takeaways
- Conservatives leading in Toronto St. Paul's bye-election signals potential shift from Liberals.
- Decrease in Liberal support and shifting voter loyalty landscape pose challenges for Justin Trudeau.
Deep dives
Toronto St. Paul's By-election Overview
The Toronto St. Paul's by-election is set to be a crucial event, potentially signaling a shift towards the Conservatives. Traditionally a Liberal stronghold, recent surveys show a significant drop in Liberal support, with the Conservatives leading at 44%, followed by the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 17%. This shift is a departure from past elections, posing a challenge for the Liberals to retain their dominance in Toronto.
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