The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons EP#55 Alyson Bode | Q4 '25 Apartment Market Update & Outlook
19 snips
Oct 16, 2025 Alyson Bode, the Senior VP for Research at Kettler, brings her multifamily market expertise to the conversation. She and Jay Parsons dissect the surprising demand resilience in 2025 and the significant rent declines in Q3. Alyson forecasts when current rental concessions might fade and highlights which high-supply markets, like Raleigh and Charlotte, are poised for rebound. They also explore macroeconomic risks that could affect recovery and discuss evolving development strategies amid challenging conditions. Insightful and forward-looking!
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Unusual Q3 Rent Decline
- Rents fell 0.28% in Q3 for new leases, the first Q3 decline since 2009.
- This is significant because rents usually seasonally rise ~1–1.5% in Q3.
2025 Isn't 2009 Redux
- 2025 differs sharply from 2009: much more supply, positive absorption, and lower unemployment.
- Those contrasts mean 2025 is not analogous to the GFC-era downturn.
Supply Location Drives Rents
- Rents fall where deliveries are concentrated and rise where supply is limited.
- Supply location remains the dominant driver of rent moves across markets.