The U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Why It May Fail and Why It Must Not
Jan 10, 2024
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The podcast explores the challenges faced by the U.S.-South Korea alliance, including the impact of nationalist leaders, domestic political polarization, and North Korea's influence. It discusses hypothetical scenarios, strategies for strengthening the alliance, and the complexities of trilateral relationships with Japan. The conversation delves into Korean autonomy, territorial disputes, nuclear concerns, and the importance of public education.
US-ROK alliance faces internal threats from political polarization in both countries
Historical context and adaptability have been key to the longevity of the US-ROK alliance
Alliance remains crucial amid challenges from North Korea, US-China rivalry, and regional security threats
Deep dives
Importance of US-ROK Alliance
The US-ROK alliance is vital for regional security amid challenges from North Korea, US-China rivalry, and global geopolitical tensions. The alliance has significantly evolved into a comprehensive partnership, symbolized by Korean investments in the US surpassing those in China.
Internal Threats to Alliance
Dr. Snyder's book highlights domestic political polarization in the US and South Korea as critical internal threats to the US-ROK alliance, rather than external factors like North Korea or China. This polarization poses uncertainties and risks to the alliance's stability and effectiveness.
Challenges and Evolution of US-ROK Alliance
The longevity of the US-ROK alliance, lasting over seven decades, has weathered various challenges and evolved from a military-focused relationship to a broader strategic partnership. The alliance's historical context and adaptability have been key to its continued strength.
External Threats and Alliance Strength
Regional security threats, such as North Korean influence operations and US-China rivalry, pose challenges to the US-ROK alliance. Despite these external pressures, the alliance remains a crucial mechanism for countering threats and ensuring stability in the region.
Potential Scenarios and Involvement in Taiwan Contingency
Discussions around a Taiwan contingency raise questions about South Korea's involvement and potential diplomatic balancing act. The US-South Korea relationship and the role of US troops in Korea could be pivotal in managing such scenarios and ensuring regional stability.
January 9, 2024 - Join us for a book talk with the Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy Scott Snyder. This new work provides an authoritative overview of the internal and external pressures on the U.S.–South Korea alliance and explores its future prospects. He argues that exclusive-nationalist leaders’ accession to power and domestic political polarization in the United States and South Korea could put past successes at risk and endanger the national security objectives of both countries. In the United States, “America First” nationalism favors self-interest over cooperation and portrays allies as burdens or even free riders. “Korea first” sentiments, in both progressive and conservative forms, present the U.S. military presence in South Korea as an obstacle to inter-Korean reconciliation or a shackle on South Korea’s freedom of action. Snyder also examines North Korea’s attempts to influence South Korean domestic politics and how China’s growing strength has affected the dynamics of the alliance. He considers scenarios in which the U.S.-South Korea relationship weakens or crumbles, emphasizing the consequences for the region and the world. Drawing on this analysis, Snyder offers timely recommendations for stakeholders in both countries on how to preserve and strengthen the alliance. The conversation is moderated by policy director Jonathan Corrado.
This program is produced in partnership between The Korea Society and The Council on Foreign Relations.