When Bad News Is Good News

Rates continue to fall today. There were two rate announcements, only hours apart. This morning the bank of Canada reduced its benchmark lending rate by 0.25%. Weakness in the labor market was the top cited reason for the drop in rates. 

This afternoon at 2:30, Chair Powell stood at the podium as he does every six weeks and announces the results of the two day FOMC meetings. The Fed dropped their benchmark lending rate by 0.25% to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. This is the second consecutive rate cut by the Fed, a move aimed at supporting a labor market that has shown signs of weakening even while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target. 

When you start to look at all of the corporate layoffs and the rising unemployment rate, it is very reminiscent of the 2001 recession that was led by layoffs in the tech sector. 

So while the news of lower interest rates is welcome, the rates are a reaction to a faltering economy where just this week alone, more than 75,000 people lost their jobs. I’m not counting the smaller layoff announcements of only a few hundred people in that total.  

These are big numbers. You don’t see these kind of numbers in a growing economy. 

So the likelihood is high that the US is already in recession, but it is politically unpalatable to say that out loud. What’s more, there is no data being collected or reported, so the economy can limp along under the cover of the government shutdown.  Then there is the government shutdown itself. Those families are not getting paid and you can guarantee that they’ve cut back on discretionary spending. That’s a few million people who are not traveling to resorts or dining out in fancy restaurants.

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