Doom Debates PhD AI Researcher Says P(Doom) is TINY — Debate with Michael Timothy Bennett
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Dec 11, 2025 Michael Timothy Bennett, a pioneering AI researcher and PhD candidate, presents a framework suggesting that superintelligence has a minimal probability of doom due to resource constraints and a tendency towards cooperation. The debate covers his thesis on intelligence as efficient adaptation, challenging the idea of simple comparisons like Einstein versus a rock. They explore concepts like embodiment and W-maxing, discussing whether AI will align with human goals or pose existential risks, all while engaging in lively arguments about AGI timelines and the nature of intelligence.
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How AIXI Sparked A PhD Journey
- Bennett recounts returning to university, meeting Marcus Hutter, and diving into foundations like AIXI and fractal compression.
- That path sparked his PhD work blending computation, biology, and abstraction layers.
PhD Productivity Through Obsession
- Bennett describes obsessive work phases, writing his thesis intensively over months without leaving home.
- He notes that productivity bursts helped him publish over 20 peer-reviewed papers during his PhD.
Low PDOOM From Resource Constraints
- Michael Timothy Bennett estimates PDOOM with AI at about 1% over 50–100 years based on resource-constraint and cooperation arguments.
- He contrasts this with Liron Shapira's ~50% by 2050, highlighting a deep disagreement on catastrophic risk forecasts.
