Bloomberg Talks Fed’s Miran Talks Neutral Rate, Tight Policy, Rate Cuts
Sep 25, 2025
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran shares insights from his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting and discusses the falling neutral rate due to changing fiscal policies and immigration trends. He advocates for proactive rate cuts to mitigate employment risks, emphasizing that waiting for a crisis is not advisable. Miran also highlights how financial markets reflect non-monetary factors, citing housing as an example of tight conditions. His perspective on the link between immigration changes and shelter inflation offers a fresh take on economic policy.
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First FOMC Meeting Impression
- Stephen Miran described his first FOMC meeting as friendly, welcoming and collegial.
- He said decisions are made by arguing economics on the merits and persuasion, not theatrics.
Disagreement About Speed Not Destination
- Miran sees modest disagreement with colleagues mainly on the speed of rate cuts, not the destination.
- His dots sit lower for 2025 but he says the gap is about how fast policy should return to neutral.
Why Neutral Rate Has Fallen
- Miran argues the neutral rate has fallen due to fiscal policy and shifting immigration, reducing net savings and population growth.
- He warns that policy is becoming tighter as these structural changes take effect and requires adjustment.