What to expect next year: Global predictions for 2024
Dec 26, 2023
auto_awesome
BBC correspondent Nuala McGovern joins the podcast to discuss global predictions for 2024. They cover upcoming elections in countries like USA, UK, South Africa, India, Russia, and Pakistan. Topics include key figures in the media, concerns about Chinese interference in Taiwan's election, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The outcome of the upcoming elections in South Africa in 2024 may weaken the long-standing ANC's grip on power and potentially lead to the formation of a coalition government, with significant implications for the country's future.
China's attempts to influence the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan, which is shaping up to be a battle between the ruling DPP and the KMT, will impact cross-strait relations and China's regional influence.
Deep dives
Russian interference and elections in Ukraine
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for almost two years. While Russia hopes for a resolution in 2024, they also want to see a change in government in Ukraine, ideally a pro-Russian government. The outcome of the US election is also important for Russia, as they prefer a Trump presidency that is less supportive of Ukraine.
Elections in South Africa and the future of ANC
The ANC has been in power in South Africa for 30 years, but their popularity has been declining. The upcoming elections in 2024 may see the ANC struggle to maintain its majority and potentially enter into a coalition with an opposition party. The party's declining popularity can be attributed to economic struggles, corruption, and poor performance of state-owned companies. The outcome of these elections will have significant consequences for the future of South Africa.
Taiwan's presidential election and Chinese interference
The presidential election in Taiwan is shaping up to be a two-horse race between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese nationalist Kuomintang (KMT). China is actively trying to influence the election and discredit the DPP candidate, who is seen as advocating for Taiwan's independence. The outcome of the election will have implications for cross-strait relations and China's influence in the region.
Key figures to watch in 2024
There are several key figures to watch in 2024. In Russia, Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, is an influential figure and a potential successor to Vladimir Putin. In Senegal, opposition leader Osman Sanko may face obstacles in the upcoming elections due to judicial cases against him. In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame will be in the spotlight due to controversial deals and accusations of supporting militia forces in the neighboring DRC. These figures will play important roles in shaping the political landscape in their respective countries.
With the help of Nuala McGovern, we ask some of the BBC's best correspondents from around the world to gaze into their crystal balls and predict what 2024 might have in store. Next year will see nearly half of the world's population going to the polls - 40 elections are scheduled to take place in countries including the USA, UK, South Africa, India, Russia, and Pakistan. How will the results of some of those elections shift the geopolitical tectonic plates, and will we see any resolution to the conflicts that have dominated 2023? Big questions, but luckily, we have some of the BBC's best minds on hand to provide plenty of answers.
The Global Story brings you trusted insights from BBC experts around the world, with Katya Adler. We're keen to hear from you, wherever you are in the world. #TheGlobalStory We want your ideas, stories, and experiences to help us understand and tell The Global Story. Email us at theglobalstory@bbc.com. You can also message us or leave a voice note on WhatsApp at +44 330 123 9480.
Today's episode of The Global Story was made by Farhana Haider, Ben Carter and Richard Moran. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The assistant editor is Sergi Forcada Freixas, and the senior news editor is Jonathan Aspinwall.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode