RiskReversal Pod Dan Greenhaus: Pardon The Interruption
Nov 3, 2025
Dan Greenhaus, chief economist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, shares his sharp insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the significance of company-specific data over macro statistics in earnings calls, and explores the effects of consumer behavior, inflation, and the Fed's policy. Greenhaus highlights the transformative AI-driven CapEx boom, its beneficiaries, and potential trading strategies in an evolving market. He also delves into regional banks' struggles and how Bitcoin serves as a risk-on indicator, offering a blend of analysis and foresight.
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Company Calls Trump Macro Data
- Dan Greenhaus prioritizes company-level signals over macro data when assessing the economy.
- He listens to management commentary and conference calls as higher-value inputs than delayed government stats.
Payments Data Shows Broad Spending Strength
- Payments firms like Visa and Mastercard show broad consumer spending remains resilient across cohorts.
- These data points counter narrower weakness seen in specific retailers or low-income segments.
Fed Is Fine-Tuning, Not Launching A Cycle
- The Fed lacks consensus because key data (inflation inputs) are sparse, making policy timing uncertain.
- Greenhaus sees the recent moves as fine-tuning toward a mid-threes terminal rate, not a fresh cutting cycle.