Redefining Energy - TECH 58. Deepwater Minerals, Shallow Promises (2/2)
Sep 24, 2025
01:07:21
In the second episode of Redefining Energy Tech, Lyle Trytten (aka the Nickel Nerd) joins host Michael Barnard to explore the controversial world of seabed mining. The discussion focuses on The Metals Company (TMC), Impossible Metals, and their efforts in the Clarion Clipperton Zone.
A significant milestone was recently announced: for the first time, a pre-feasibility study claimed 50 million tons of declared reserves out of 360 million tons of identified seabed resources. While notable, the credibility of this claim is in question. Unlike Canadian and Australian standards that require independent certification, TMC’s study relied on internal sources—raising concerns about transparency and trustworthiness.
Mining has always carried uncertainty, and seabed operations are even riskier. Most mining projects miss their cost, scope, and timeline estimates—and deep-sea ventures amplify these risks. TMC’s proposed system involves a massive vacuum operating at 4,000 meters below sea level, connected to a 7-kilometer riser pipe hauling nodules to the surface. The technology is approaching mid-to-high readiness. In contrast, Impossible Metals is developing small autonomous vehicles to pick nodules selectively. While innovative, their tech is at a lower readiness level (around 3–4) and still grappling with deep-sea navigation—more science fiction than reality for now.
Even if extraction is successful, processing presents a massive challenge. TMC has an agreement with a Japanese smelter for 1 million tons per year, but global demand calls for 9 million tons of new processing capacity. Indonesia, through China-led ventures, dominates the nickel supply chain with tightly integrated mining and smelting. TMC’s proposal to build two U.S. refineries underscores how far behind the West is in infrastructure and planning. History isn't encouraging either—many Western nickel laterite projects have failed, while Chinese efforts succeed due to end-to-end alignment of mining, processing, and market demand.
The conversation also revealed deeper systemic issues. The West has allowed mining and metallurgy education to deteriorate. The U.S. now produces a fraction of the engineers it once did, while China graduates the majority of the world’s mining specialists. Reversing that trend could take a generation. Meanwhile, seabed mining risks following the path of hydrogen for transport: overhyped, slow to materialize, and economically weak compared to better alternatives. Consumers are already pushing back on seabed minerals due to environmental and ethical concerns. If deep-sea mining ever becomes viable, China is best positioned to lead.
A new global treaty could further hinder seabed mining. The High Seas Treaty—now ratified by over 60 nations and set to become international law in January—prioritizes a precautionary approach to ocean activities and aims to protect nearly a third of international waters. It also includes provisions for sharing profits from marine genetic resources. While the U.S. has signed, it has yet to ratify the agreement.
Looking ahead, EV adoption continues to accelerate, but resource strategies must be grounded in reality. Pursuing high-cost, speculative mineral sources powered by clean energy doesn't make sense when direct electrification offers more immediate gains. A strong critical minerals strategy in the West will require renewed investment in education, strategic alliances, and a focus on scaling practical, proven technologies—not just what looks impressive on a slide deck.
A significant milestone was recently announced: for the first time, a pre-feasibility study claimed 50 million tons of declared reserves out of 360 million tons of identified seabed resources. While notable, the credibility of this claim is in question. Unlike Canadian and Australian standards that require independent certification, TMC’s study relied on internal sources—raising concerns about transparency and trustworthiness.
Mining has always carried uncertainty, and seabed operations are even riskier. Most mining projects miss their cost, scope, and timeline estimates—and deep-sea ventures amplify these risks. TMC’s proposed system involves a massive vacuum operating at 4,000 meters below sea level, connected to a 7-kilometer riser pipe hauling nodules to the surface. The technology is approaching mid-to-high readiness. In contrast, Impossible Metals is developing small autonomous vehicles to pick nodules selectively. While innovative, their tech is at a lower readiness level (around 3–4) and still grappling with deep-sea navigation—more science fiction than reality for now.
Even if extraction is successful, processing presents a massive challenge. TMC has an agreement with a Japanese smelter for 1 million tons per year, but global demand calls for 9 million tons of new processing capacity. Indonesia, through China-led ventures, dominates the nickel supply chain with tightly integrated mining and smelting. TMC’s proposal to build two U.S. refineries underscores how far behind the West is in infrastructure and planning. History isn't encouraging either—many Western nickel laterite projects have failed, while Chinese efforts succeed due to end-to-end alignment of mining, processing, and market demand.
The conversation also revealed deeper systemic issues. The West has allowed mining and metallurgy education to deteriorate. The U.S. now produces a fraction of the engineers it once did, while China graduates the majority of the world’s mining specialists. Reversing that trend could take a generation. Meanwhile, seabed mining risks following the path of hydrogen for transport: overhyped, slow to materialize, and economically weak compared to better alternatives. Consumers are already pushing back on seabed minerals due to environmental and ethical concerns. If deep-sea mining ever becomes viable, China is best positioned to lead.
A new global treaty could further hinder seabed mining. The High Seas Treaty—now ratified by over 60 nations and set to become international law in January—prioritizes a precautionary approach to ocean activities and aims to protect nearly a third of international waters. It also includes provisions for sharing profits from marine genetic resources. While the U.S. has signed, it has yet to ratify the agreement.
Looking ahead, EV adoption continues to accelerate, but resource strategies must be grounded in reality. Pursuing high-cost, speculative mineral sources powered by clean energy doesn't make sense when direct electrification offers more immediate gains. A strong critical minerals strategy in the West will require renewed investment in education, strategic alliances, and a focus on scaling practical, proven technologies—not just what looks impressive on a slide deck.