EU Confidential Trump blinks on tariffs. Can Europe exhale?
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Apr 11, 2025 In this discussion, Doug Busvine, an agriculture and trade expert at POLITICO, teams up with Josh Lipsky from the Atlantic Council to dissect Trump's surprising pause on tariffs. They analyze the implications for global trade dynamics, particularly in Europe, and discuss whether this signals a temporary truce or further turbulence ahead. The duo also explores how these developments could affect inflation in Europe and unveil the EU's strategic tools to counteract trade coercion. It’s a thrilling dive into the shifting tides of international trade!
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Bond Market Stress
- The bond market showed stress, with U.S. treasury yields rising as investors exited.
- This stress, along with a potential "sell America trade," likely influenced Trump's tariff decisions.
EU's Position
- Trump's tariff pause is a win for the EU, as the planned 20% tariff was reduced to 10%.
- The EU will likely put its retaliatory tariffs on hold, creating a negotiation phase.
Negotiation Dynamics
- Trump's willingness to negotiate varies by country, with Japan, India, and South Korea potentially having better positions than the EU.
- The next 90 days will focus on determining boundaries and securing allies in the trade war with China.