Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever: Will Your State Crash? | 3.9.25
Mar 9, 2025
auto_awesome
John Rubino, a financial analyst and author, shares his insights on the current housing market. He discusses the recent drop in interest rates leading to more mortgage applications while warning of a looming crash in certain areas. Rubino highlights the unique challenges faced by younger homebuyers amid inflation and affordability issues. He delves into the downturn in Austin's once-thriving market, regional disparities, and the impact of corporate ownership on housing trends. Expect significant shifts in the market as baby boomers prepare to sell.
The current housing market reveals a shift in buyer demographics, with median first-time homebuyers now in their 50s due to unaffordability.
Rising unsold inventory and increasing delisting rates in states like Texas and Florida suggest potential for a significant market correction ahead.
Deep dives
The Unique Housing Bubble Dynamics
Current dynamics of the housing market reveal a striking difference in buyer demographics, with the median age of first-time homebuyers now in their 50s. Historically, housing bubbles occur as prices rise, igniting a fear of missing out (FOMO) among prospective buyers, which leads to increased activity. However, the present scenario shows that skyrocketing prices have rendered homes unaffordable for many, effectively freezing the market despite historically high prices. Consequently, while prices are elevated to unprecedented levels, the volume of transactions resembles that of the 1990s when the population was significantly smaller.
Impending Market Corrections
As more homeowners attempt to sell at current inflated prices, the market is witnessing a buildup of unsold inventory, particularly in previously hot regions like Texas and Florida. This trend hints at a possible panic phase, as sellers may become desperate and lower prices, leading to significant price drops akin to a bear market. Moreover, current delisting rates are rising, signaling that sellers are increasingly unable to find buyers, which typically precedes pronounced downward shifts in home prices. Experts anticipate that as inventory continues to accumulate, many will have to sell homes at steep discounts, resulting in a broader market correction.
Regional Variations in the Housing Market
Regional disparities are evident in the housing market, with states like Florida and Texas experiencing oversupply, while others maintain persistent shortages. Many people are still moving to states perceived as better managed, although this migration has slowed due to increasing unaffordability. Additionally, places that did not experience significant price appreciation are likely to fare better during market downturns, such as areas in Missouri and Ohio. The interplay of factors including corporate investment, the retirement of baby boomers, and the impact of Airbnb properties is creating a complex landscape that could lead to diverse outcomes across different regions.
Interest rates drop slightly, sparking a surge in mortgage applications, but a financial expert warns of an impending housing market crash in certain U.S. regions due to a unique bubble driven by inflation, unaffordability, and a flood of incoming inventory. Get the facts first on Morning Wire.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode