Morning Wire
Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever: Will Your State Crash? | 3.9.25
Mar 9, 2025
John Rubino, a financial analyst and author, shares his insights on the current housing market. He discusses the recent drop in interest rates leading to more mortgage applications while warning of a looming crash in certain areas. Rubino highlights the unique challenges faced by younger homebuyers amid inflation and affordability issues. He delves into the downturn in Austin's once-thriving market, regional disparities, and the impact of corporate ownership on housing trends. Expect significant shifts in the market as baby boomers prepare to sell.
11:51
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Quick takeaways
- The current housing market reveals a shift in buyer demographics, with median first-time homebuyers now in their 50s due to unaffordability.
- Rising unsold inventory and increasing delisting rates in states like Texas and Florida suggest potential for a significant market correction ahead.
Deep dives
The Unique Housing Bubble Dynamics
Current dynamics of the housing market reveal a striking difference in buyer demographics, with the median age of first-time homebuyers now in their 50s. Historically, housing bubbles occur as prices rise, igniting a fear of missing out (FOMO) among prospective buyers, which leads to increased activity. However, the present scenario shows that skyrocketing prices have rendered homes unaffordable for many, effectively freezing the market despite historically high prices. Consequently, while prices are elevated to unprecedented levels, the volume of transactions resembles that of the 1990s when the population was significantly smaller.
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