#223 China’s Big Mistake in the Middle East | Jonathan Cristol
Oct 9, 2023
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Jonathan Cristol, an expert on China's strategy in the Middle East, discusses China's alliance with Iran, the barter system between the two countries, China's impact on Iranian politics, China's growing role in the Middle East, tensions in the Iran-China relationship, investments in alternative energy in the Gulf region, and potential consequences of China withdrawing from the Middle East.
China's trade arrangement with Iran, trading cheap manufacturing goods for Iranian oil, has led to economic unrest in Iran and raised concerns about surveillance technology being used to oppress protesters.
China's expanding presence in the Middle East poses challenges for US interests in the region, as it may become a dominant player and potentially jeopardize US efforts to counter Chinese aggression and protect its allies.
The close economic relationship between China and Iran has negatively impacted local manufacturing in Iran, while China's treatment of Muslim minorities and potential destabilization in the region also raise concerns.
Deep dives
China's Economic Interests in the Middle East
China continues to do business with Iran, despite US sanctions, due to its heavy reliance on oil imports. China has entered into an arrangement with Iran, trading cheap manufacturing goods for Iranian oil at below-market prices. This helps China secure a significant amount of oil without triggering US sanctions. However, this trade arrangement has led to domestic economic unrest in Iran, as the influx of Chinese goods has driven down local manufacturing and caused job losses. It has also raised concerns about China's surveillance technology being used to oppress and identify protesters in Iran.
Impact on US-China Relations
The economic relationship between China and Iran, along with China's expanding presence in the Middle East, poses challenges for US interests in the region. While the US benefits from the stability China helps maintain in the Middle East, there are concerns about China gaining too much influence and potentially becoming a dominant player in the region. There is also tension between China's economic interests and US efforts to counter Chinese aggression and protect its allies in the region, particularly Taiwan. The US must carefully navigate its own interests in the Middle East in relation to China's expanding presence.
Controversies and Challenges
China's involvement in the Middle East is not without controversy and challenges. The close economic relationship between China and Iran has led to domestic unrest in Iran, as the influx of cheap Chinese goods has negatively impacted local manufacturing. China's surveillance technology, sold to Iran, has been used to identify and target protesters, adding to domestic tensions. Additionally, the relationship between China and the Middle East raises concerns about China's treatment of Muslim minorities, such as the Uyghurs, and the potential destabilizing impact of China becoming a dominant player in the region.
Potential Shifts in the Relationship
While the Iran-China relationship has faced domestic challenges and economic concerns, it is still a significant partnership between the two countries. However, the future of this relationship is unclear. It is possible that the honeymoon period between them is coming to an end, with tensions and pushback emerging in Iran. The effectiveness and sustainability of China's involvement in the Middle East may be called into question, especially as economic and political dynamics continue to evolve.
Implications for US Policy
China's increasing presence in the Middle East poses challenges for US policy in the region. The US needs to balance its own interests, such as countering China's influence and protecting its allies, with the stability and economic benefits that China provides. The US must carefully consider its approach to the region, especially in the face of shifting relationships and potential conflicts. It is important for the US to maintain a strong presence and engagement in the Middle East, highlighting the value it brings and carefully navigating China's presence and ambitions.
China has been playing a bigger and bigger role in the Middle East, which for the time being, has been a boost for its energy security. But there are fires on the horizon that China might not be able to be able to put out that could permanently sour the relationship. In this episode of China Unscripted, we discuss China's strategy in the Middle East, it's alliance with Iran in defiance of the US, and the trouble China's already facing in the region. Joining us in this episode is Jonathan Cristol, a professor of international affairs at Yeshiva University in New York City and author of "The United States and the Taliban before and after 9/11."
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