Mark Dow: A Behavioral Macro View - [Making Markets, EP.13]

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Jan 19, 2024

Mark Dow, former economist with the US Treasury and the IMF, talks about why economists struggle with trading, the significance of the Federal Reserve, misconceptions about monetary policy, the current risk cycle, modern monetary theory, asset price inflation and wealth inequality, and analyzing the state of the housing market.

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Introduction

00:00 • 4min

Transitioning from Economics to Trading

03:31 • 5min

The Importance of the Federal Reserve and Misconceptions About Monetary Policy

08:07 • 26min

Current Risk Cycle and Future Market Outlook

34:04 • 8min

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its Implications on Fiscal and Monetary Policy

42:07 • 7min

Asset Price Inflation, Wealth Inequality, and Economic Policy

48:38 • 5min

Analyzing the State of the Housing Market and Predicting Earnings Growth

53:26 • 4min

My guest this week is Mark Dow. Mark started his career as an economist with the US Treasury and the IMF before he joined Wall Street. Today, he is the founder of behavourialmacro.com and runs a fund that combines his skillsets as a trader and an economist. In this discussion, we get into why economists are usually bad investors and how Mark approaches markets. We also cover some provocative ideas - including how Quantitive Easing and Tightening have little effect and why Mark's not worried about US debt. Please enjoy this great conversation with Mark Dow.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).

Show Notes

(00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets

(00:02:12) First question Discussing why economists often struggle with trading and investing

(00:05:32) Strategies for aligning with market movements

(00:16:06) Exploring reasons why a recession hasn't occurred yet

(00:25:32) Delving into the inflation dynamics of 2010

(00:31:18) Assessing the effects of interest rates on high-value assets

(00:34:13) Evaluating the current position in the market risk cycle

(00:40:28) Investigating the perceived absence of risk in the market

(00:43:14) Reflecting on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

(00:49:19) Analyzing the relationship between asset price inflation and income inequality

(00:53:57) Identifying the most promising sector in the current market cycle

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