Michael Gayed on Leading and Lagging Indicators, Small Caps, Inflation, Big Tech | S07 E05

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Feb 10, 2025

Michael Gayed, Publisher of the Lead Lag Report, dives into investment strategy dynamics and market indicators. He discusses the tension between value and growth investing in a tech-centric world and critiques misleading economic narratives that affect public perception. Gayed also examines the divergence between small-cap stocks and credit spreads, reflecting on the implications of these signals for investors. With a touch of humor, he underscores the unpredictable nature of financial markets and the significance of navigating time in investing.

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INSIGHT

Passive Bubble

The current market favors passive investing in large-cap tech stocks.
However, this concentration creates a bubble that will eventually burst.

INSIGHT

Tech Dominance

Tech dominance drives growth's outperformance over value, US over international, and large over small caps.
This raises concerns about a potential fundamental shift where tech becomes too big to fail.

INSIGHT

Structural Insanity

Passive flows disproportionately benefit the largest market capitalizations, creating a self-perpetuating cycle.
This structural insanity distorts market signals and rewards companies based on size rather than fundamentals.

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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. About Jake Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam. He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).