The Bitcoin Standard Podcast 343. Bitcoin Electricity Consumption May Have Peaked
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Sep 15, 2026 Could Bitcoin mining’s electricity use have reached its high-water mark? This discussion examines shrinking block rewards, falling mining incentives, and difficulty trends as clues to a potential contraction. It also explores AI’s growing competition for power and infrastructure, the role of transaction fees, and how Bitcoin might keep growing even as mining declines.
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The Halving Sets An 18.92 Percent Mining Hurdle
- Bitcoin mining must grow only while expected Bitcoin appreciation exceeds the halving hurdle of 18.92% annually in real terms.
- Slower expected price growth makes miners reduce capital expenditure and electricity consumption at the margin.
Bitcoin Growth Must Slow As Its Market Expands
- Bitcoin’s percentage growth naturally slows as its market capitalization absorbs more global monetary demand.
- Sustaining early growth rates eventually requires capital flows that exceed the world’s available savings and wealth.
Bitcoin Epochs Show Mining Revenue Losing Momentum
- Average epoch prices rose dramatically, but each successive epoch delivered a much smaller subsidy-revenue increase.
- The subsidy multiple fell from 31.6 times in the second epoch to 1.28 times in the fifth.