David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, shares his insights alongside Ricky Mulvey. They dive into the looming TikTok ban and its implications for tech giants like Apple and Google. The discussion highlights strong bank performance heading into 2025 and explores the balance of traditional vs. innovative business models in finance. Gardner emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, urging listeners to tune out short-term noise for greater returns.
The looming TikTok ban in the U.S. highlights the complex valuation and potential ownership battles for the app's substantial user base.
Apple's declining smartphone sales in China reveal growing competition and challenges for the company amid shifting market dynamics.
Deep dives
TikTok's Imminent Ban and Its Implications
The potential ban of TikTok in the United States is creating significant urgency as the deadline approaches. ByteDance, the parent company, is facing a January 19 deadline to divest the app or risk losing access to its American user base, which accounts for 170 million monthly users. The Supreme Court's recent affirmation of this law indicates that not only ByteDance but also tech giants like Apple and Google may face hefty fines for enabling the app's download or distribution. This has sparked speculation about the sustainability of TikTok's user base, as users could migrate to platforms like YouTube and Instagram if TikTok is forcibly taken off the market.
Potential Buyers and Valuation of TikTok
The conversation around potential buyers for TikTok has intensified, with figures like Elon Musk and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin being mentioned as interested parties. The differing valuations for TikTok were discussed, highlighting the company's estimated 1.6 billion monthly users and the potential worth of a standalone U.S. business. Estimates suggest TikTok could be valued between $50 billion to $200 billion depending on whether its highly coveted algorithm is included in the sale. This valuation challenge reflects not just the company's vast user network but also the complexities of separating its technology from its operations.
Apple's Declining Market Share in China
Apple has lost its position as the top smartphone seller in China, falling behind local competitors Huawei and Vivo, which now dominate 56% of global smartphone shipments. The company faced a drop in iPhone sales by 5% during the holiday fourth quarter, raising concerns about its growth prospects in a critical market. Analysts pointed out that despite the increase of Apple Intelligence features in recent models, it failed to boost customer interest significantly, impacting upgrade cycles. This trend poses questions about whether Apple can regain its footing in a fiercely competitive market while maintaining its lofty valuation.
Positive Outlook for Banks and Investment Opportunities
The banking sector is demonstrating robust growth, with significant earnings reports from major banks indicating a strong overall performance in 2024. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs reported substantial increases in revenue, with dynamics in investment banking and asset management driving profits. Analysts suggest that with the potential for a new administration, deregulation might spur growth opportunities, especially in deal-making and IPO activities. This optimism is reflected in the stock prices and forecasted momentum for banks as they capitalize on a broadening deal pipeline.
170 million TikTok users in the U.S. might be up for sale. What are they worth?
(00:42) Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann discuss:
- The looming TikTok ban, why Apple and Google are the real gatekeepers, and what a standalone TikTok U.S. might look like.
- Apple’s other problem in China: smartphone sales and rising competition from Huawei and Vivo.
- Bank earnings showing 2024 was a stellar year for banks, and how the macro environment and policy outlook are settling them up for good times to continue in 2025.
(19:03) Where will the stock market be at the end of 2025? Motley Fool co-Founder David Gardner and Ricky Mulvey have a guess and some guidance on how to keep the short-term noise out of the way of your long-term returns.