Why immigration numbers are a headache for economists
Oct 2, 2024
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Jed Kolko, a former under secretary for economic affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce, dives into the complexities of U.S. immigration data. He explains the discrepancies between agency estimates and their critical implications for economic policy. Kolko emphasizes the importance of accurate immigration numbers in understanding job markets. The conversation also touches on the ongoing dockworker strike, highlighting automation's role and its broader economic effects. Additionally, they unpack the significance of accurate data amidst election debates.
Discrepancies in immigration estimates arise from different data collection methods, complicating policymakers' understanding of labor market impacts.
Accurate immigration data is vital for shaping economic policy, influencing decisions like interest rates and labor supply management.
Deep dives
The Military's Response to Climate Change
Climate change is posing significant new threats, prompting the military to take action. The warming temperatures are contributing to increased risks for troops and military operations, underscoring the need for preparedness against climate-related disasters. Historical funding by the Pentagon on climate studies since the 1950s highlights the longstanding recognition of this issue. As climate change continues to worsen, the military is focusing on adjusting logistics, strategies, and operations to mitigate and adapt to these emerging threats.
Challenges in Immigration Data Collection
Government agencies provide varying estimates of immigration numbers due to differences in data collection methods. Surveys conducted by the Census Bureau differ from administrative data collected by border protection agencies, leading to discrepancies in immigration estimates. For instance, the Congressional Budget Office and the Census Bureau offered significantly differing estimates for 2023 net immigration, indicating potential gaps of millions. Such inconsistencies complicate policymakers' understanding of immigration's impact on the labor market and the economy at large.
The Economic Impact of Immigration Policy
Understanding immigration is crucial for comprehending the labor market dynamics in the U.S., as immigration is a key factor in workforce growth. The debate often centers around undocumented immigration, yet legal immigration also plays an essential role, especially in industries that require specialized skills. This discussion has policy implications, as accurate immigration data can influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates and overall economic strategy. The current estimates suggest a critical need for clarity, as differing immigration numbers could lead to substantial policy inconsistencies affecting the labor supply.
All sorts of statistics related to immigration are being thrown around in debates, speeches and campaign ads ahead of this year’s election. Immigration estimates are painstakingly calculated by various government agencies. But lately, economists have been wrangling with wide gaps between some of these numbers. On the show today, Jed Kolko, former under secretary for economic affairs at the U.S. Department of Commerce, explains how government agencies actually crunch immigration numbers, why two agencies’ estimates aren’t matching up right now and why accurate immigration data is crucial to how we understand the economy and setting economic policy.
Then, we’ll get into why the ongoing dockworkers’ strike is about more than just higher wages. And, we’ll get smarter about a common cooking herb.