Jay Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, discusses the key points of the FOMC decision, including maintaining a higher for longer posture, combating inflation, and upcoming focal points for the Fed. Analysis of Jay Powell's stance on cutting interest rates, potential recession, and market fluctuations. Insights into the impact of Powell's remarks on the financial markets and a preview of upcoming economic indicators and Fed actions.
Fed Chair Jay Powell emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, indicating potential future rate hikes to break the back of inflation.
Analysts anticipate a modest recession leading to rate cuts, driven by the Fed's goal to balance monetary policy restrictions without becoming excessively restrictive.
Deep dives
Summary of the FOMC Decision and Economic Projections
During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized maintaining a higher for longer posture, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts. Despite optimistic projections for GDP growth and lower unemployment rates, Powell stated that a soft landing is not his base case. Economists suggest that Powell's remarks indicate a willingness to break the back of inflation, implying potential future rate hikes. Event risks such as student loan repayments, a possible government shutdown, and excess savings depletion could impact the Fed's decision-making in upcoming meetings.
The Role of Inflation and Real Rates
Analysts believe that if inflation continues to slow down, the Fed may have to cut nominal rates to prevent a further increase in real rates, which are already in restrictive territory. They anticipate a modest recession leading to rate cuts, possibly around the middle of next year. The Fed's pragmatic risk management approach is driven by the goal to maintain a constant spread between inflation and policy rates, balancing monetary policy restrictions without becoming excessively restrictive.
Factors Influencing Future Policy Decisions
The Fed's dependency on data is limited by the few remaining data points before the November meeting. However, event risks such as economic slowdown, further labor market weaknesses, and inflation surprises play a critical role in shaping future decisions. Additionally, concerns about liquidity and consequences of quantitative tightening (QT) have become less discussed, despite the potential impact on monetary policy. The focus is on risk management and navigating potential shocks that cannot be predicted or anticipated.