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Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Global Macro: Has the Fed Abandoned Its Inflation Target? ft. Andreas Steno & Darius Dale
Aug 28, 2024
Andreas Steno, a macroeconomic commentator, and Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, dive into the U.S. economy's current state. They discuss the shifting inflation cycle, predicting a tough path towards the Fed’s 2% target, potentially settling at 3%. Labor market dynamics are examined, highlighting rising unemployment and its impact on economic cycles. They also tackle asset allocation strategies amid volatility, evaluating risks in markets and the implications of an upcoming Fed cutting cycle on investment decisions.
39:53
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. economy is experiencing growth amid signs of softening inflation, yet the Fed's ability to stabilize it at 2% is challenged.
- Despite rising unemployment, the labor market reflects broader economic shifts rather than recession indicators, urging investors to focus on leading indicators.
Deep dives
Current State of the US Economy
The US economy is currently at a critical juncture, experiencing signs of both growth and potential deterioration. Although inflation is showing signs of softening, macro indicators suggest that the economy is nearing the end of a cycle of consistent growth, which began in mid-2022. Experts anticipate that growth will not drop into recession territory; however, they expect the rate of growth to slow while remaining above consensus forecasts for the next year. Current projections indicate that inflation may continue to decline in the short term, yet a significant uptick is expected in the first half of the following year.
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Discover
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