Israel Invades: The Gazan Trap, with Shashank Joshi
Oct 31, 2023
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The Economist's defence editor, Shashank Joshi, discusses Israel's strategic aim in Gaza, the challenges of a ground-war, the dilemma of occupying Gaza or building a protective wall, the evolving weaponry in Gaza, and the geopolitical implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Israel's military intervention in Gaza aims to destroy Hamas, recover hostages, set post-war order, prevent Iranian intervention, and balance conflicting objectives and strategies.
Israel faces the strategic dilemma of finding a successor to govern Gaza while managing multiple borders and the potential involvement of Iran, raising uncertainties in the region.
The Biden administration grapples with managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict amidst efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal and balancing domestic pressures, highlighting the complexity of the geopolitical dynamics and the need for allies' cooperation.
Deep dives
Objectives of Israel's Military Intervention in Gaza
The objectives of Israel's military intervention in Gaza can be summarized as follows: destroying Hamas as a military and governing entity, recovering hostages, minimizing casualties, setting the conditions for a post-war order in Gaza, and keeping the Northern Front quiet to prevent Iran from intervening through its proxy, Hezbollah. Israel's approach to achieve these objectives includes a gradual and incremental ground campaign, which could last for months or even up to a year, and the consideration of a buffer zone inside Gaza to contain the problem. However, balancing these objectives presents challenges, and the Israeli government may have to reassess its strategies and priorities to find a viable solution for Gaza.
The Strategic Dilemma and Questions for Israel
Israel faces a strategic dilemma in Gaza, as it needs to determine who will be responsible for maintaining order in the region. The previous approach of containing Hamas and relying on technology to minimize rocket attacks has proven ineffective. The scale of the tunnels and the increasing rocket threat require a shift in thinking. It becomes crucial for Israel to find a suitable successor to Hamas to ensure security and stability in Gaza. However, this raises questions about who can govern Gaza and whether Israel can manage three borders with Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in the south, and the West Bank. The potential involvement of Iran further complicates the situation. The Biden administration's position on the region and its focus on the Asia-Pacific adds another layer of uncertainty.
Challenges for the Biden Administration
The Biden administration faces challenges in managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly in the context of its efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal. The administration needs to balance domestic political pressures with its desire for political peace with the Palestinians. The vulnerability of both Israel and the United States is heightened by the complex and interconnected geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. The strain on American military resources and the rebalancing towards China remain key considerations. The administration's priority is to rely on allies, such as European nations and Arab states, to share the burden in resolving the conflicts. However, failure to manage these challenges may result in a shift in strategic priorities and a reassessment of their approach towards Iran and the region.
Potential Scenarios and Future Considerations
The outcome of the military intervention in Gaza and the broader geopolitical landscape remains uncertain. Possible scenarios include the gradual destruction of Hamas, a possible return to containment with a weakened Hamas, or a reassessment of strategies involving a broader political solution. The impact on future Israeli politics, including the role of Benjamin Netanyahu and the potential for a resumption of the two-state solution, remains to be seen. The vulnerability and limited capacity of both Israel and the United States to manage multiple crises simultaneously highlight the challenges in maintaining stability and order in the region. The evolving dynamics in the Middle East may require a reevaluation of strategic priorities and alliances, with significant consequences for global security.
Conclusion
The military intervention in Gaza presents Israel with a complex strategic dilemma and profound challenges, including setting achievable objectives, finding a suitable successor to Hamas, managing multiple borders, and balancing regional dynamics. The involvement of Iran and the vulnerability of both Israel and the United States further complicate the situation. The Biden administration faces the task of navigating these challenges while focusing on its broader strategic priorities. The future outcome and implications of this crisis remain uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from the gradual destruction of Hamas to a reassessment of strategies and alliances in the region.
In this episode, Tom and Helen chat to the The Economist's defence editor, Shashank Joshi, about the logistical challenges of a ground-war, what Israel seek to gain by invading Gaza, and the dangers that lie ahead.
