Private Credit Investing in a “Higher for Longer” Environment
Apr 5, 2024
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Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk and Jim Vanek from Apollo discuss private credit investing in a 'higher for longer' interest-rate environment. They cover topics like market conditions, growth in private credit, opportunities for investors, tightening credit spreads, geopolitical risks, rising interest rates impact on leverage and default rates, and evolving landscape of private credit investments.
Investors face challenges in a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment affecting private credit market investments.
Tightening credit spreads in investment-grade and high-yield markets create compelling opportunities for investors in private credit.
Geopolitical risks and global uncertainties impact interest rates, credit markets, and require strategic risk management in private credit investing.
Deep dives
Impact of Resilient Economy and Interest Rates
Investors are adjusting to the possibility of sustained high interest rates due to a resilient economy and inflation levels. The podcast highlights the implications of a 'higher for longer' environment on private credit market investments. Notably, the shift of capital creation from public to private markets presents appealing opportunities in private credit.
Tightening Credit Spreads and Market Conditions
Credit spreads have significantly tightened over the last 12 to 18 months, particularly in investment-grade and high-yield markets. The valuation perspective reveals tighter spreads and higher asset prices, yet opportunities in private credit remain compelling due to elevated yields amidst higher base rates. The lack of new asset creation in credit markets, primarily driven by low M&A volumes, contributes to the current tightening spreads.
Geopolitical Risks and their Impact on Credit Markets
Geopolitical risks, including US-China trade tensions and global conflicts, influence interest rate expectations and credit markets. Changes in global demand patterns and supply chains impact specific industries and multinational companies. The evolving geopolitical landscape poses considerations for investors in navigating credit markets amidst uncertainties.
Higher Rates' Implications on Borrowers and Underwriting Standards
Rising rates and sustained economic strength challenge highly leveraged companies, impacting credit quality and capital structures. The podcast emphasizes the importance of understanding underwriting standards, covenant structures, and debt levels amid a high-rate environment. Active portfolio management and strategic lending approaches are crucial for mitigating risks associated with higher rates.
Private Credit Opportunities, Market Size, and Addressable Market
Private credit offers a diverse and expansive investment landscape beyond traditional lending avenues. The podcast discusses the misconceptions around the addressable market for private credit, highlighting opportunities in structure, risk, and investment grade sectors. Emphasizing the broader private credit market worth $40 trillion, the discussion underscores opportunities in private credit beyond conventional boundaries.
Listen to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk speak with Jim Vanek, Co-Head of Global Performing Credit at Apollo, about what a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment can mean for investors in private credit. Their wide-ranging conversation assesses current market conditions, discusses how the private credit market is growing and evolving, and identifies areas where they see opportunities arising for investors in the months ahead.
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