Ted Oakley: "Worst Part" For Stocks Lies Ahead In 1st Half Of 2024
Nov 26, 2023
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Ted Oakley, financial advisor with over 40 years experience, predicts the worst part of the bear market will occur in 1st half of 2024. They discuss the impact of stimulus and low interest rates, private debt market troubles, Warren Buffett's investment strategy, potential mega trends for the 2030s, outlook on stocks and concerns about debt, portfolio positioning and investment strategy, and the relationship between wealth and happiness.
Financial advisor Ted Oakley predicts the worst part of the bear market will occur in the first two quarters of 2024.
Oakley warns of potential market weakness and economic troubles ahead, particularly for equities.
Oakley emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and balance in investment strategies to navigate market downturns and seize future opportunities.
Deep dives
Assessment of the Global Economy and Financial Markets
According to financial advisor Ted Oakley, the global economy is facing challenges due to the excessive amount of money in the system in 2021. The expected downturn was delayed, but Oakley predicts that the difficult times will be felt in the first and second quarters of 2024. He disagrees with the notion that the consumer remains strong, highlighting various indicators that suggest worsening conditions. Oakley foresees potential market weakness and economic troubles ahead, particularly for equities.
Concerns about the Magnificent Seven Stocks
Oakley draws a parallel between the current tech sector and following eras of past decades, highlighting that the leaders of a particular era often stumble in the subsequent era. The immense valuations and concentration of capital in only a few companies, often referred to as the Magnificent Seven, are reminiscent of previous periods of high speculation. Oakley cautions that the current environment may be setting up for a market disaster, particularly as many investors flock to the same equities. He believes that the worst part of the market decline may be ahead, potentially occurring in the next one or two quarters.
Portfolio Positioning and Future Opportunities
In terms of portfolio positioning, Oakley emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and balance in investment strategies. He aims to protect and deploy capital during market downturns and take advantage of future opportunities that arise. Oakley's approach involves having a significant liquidity buffer to navigate through challenging periods and be ready to invest when valuations become more favorable. He looks for good companies with solid dividends that can weather challenging times and expects the next 10 years to provide unforeseen opportunities that can be seized with adequate liquidity.
Potential Rise of Commodity-based Companies
Commodities and commodity-based companies could perform well in the next 10 to 15 years due to the shrinking supplies caused by a focus on finance and technology. While this shift has not happened yet, it is worth watching as commodities may become increasingly valuable in the future.
Importance of Gratitude and Happiness
Happiness and fulfillment do not come from material possessions or wealth. It is essential to be grateful for what one has and to prioritize relationships, purpose, and giving back. Money cannot buy happiness, and true wealth is measured in more than just financial terms.
Here at the end of 2023, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago.
Is that confidence justified? Or will 2024 deliver a rude awakening?
To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors.
Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year.
Ted is worried that the "worst part" of the bear market that started in 2022 still lies ahead, likely in the first two quarters of 2024.
To follow Ted, go to: https://oxbowadvisors.com/
To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/
#bearmarket #recession #stockcrash
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