Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: December 24th, 2025
Dec 24, 2025
Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, shares her insights on market trends, warning of high valuations masking deeper risks. Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, discusses the controversial $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applications and its implications for U.S. workforce policy. Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading, raises alarms about a potential market bubble fueled by AI enthusiasm and stresses the need for caution in credit markets. Together, they paint a complex picture of the economic landscape ahead.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Use Weekly Claims To See Through Noisy Jobs Data
- Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give cleaner labor signals when headline jobs data are distorted by events like a government shutdown.
- Stephanie Roth and Michael Ball emphasize watching continuing claims and Beige Book anecdotes to gauge real labor and activity trends.
Beige Book Shows A Softer Underlayer Beneath AI Hype
- The Beige Book captures anecdotal sentiment across Fed districts and has trended weaker, showing falling sales, activity, and investment.
- Michael Ball warns this softening could mean weaker non-AI capex and slower momentum beyond the AI pulse.
Position For A Patient Fed, Not Quick Cuts
- Expect the Fed to remain on hold into next year until a new chair is in place and clearer data arrive.
- Plan portfolios assuming fewer near-term cuts unless labor weakens sharply or inflation falls decisively.