The Macro Dirt Podcast Silver Breakout, Bitcoin Volatility & Burry’s Bad Call
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Dec 4, 2025 Tony and Jared explore the recent surge in silver and its potential to lead metals markets. They delve into the volatility of Bitcoin and notable institutional moves, including JP Morgan's leveraging tactics. The duo breaks down the latest sector rotation that's leaving traders off balance following a notable market pullback. They also discuss the psychology of market navigation through Jared’s ‘Wall of Worry’ framework and critique Michael Burry’s newsletter, questioning his investment strategies and risk assessments.
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Hassett May Not Be As Dovish As Market Hopes
- Kevin Hassett's nomination may not mean extreme dovishness despite market expectations of big rate cuts.
- Bond yields look to be bottoming and the market could sell off on the 'sell the news' Fed-chair naming.
QT's Market Impact Is Much Smaller Than It Looks
- QT was small in daily size and ending it may not meaningfully shrink the Fed's balance sheet impact.
- The Fed's balance sheet fell from about $9T to $6.5T, so QT remains a slow process.
Don’t Fade A Silver Breakout
- Avoid shorting silver above $25 if price action confirms strength; it's either a big long or flat trade.
- Respect the breakout and keep powder ready to join when the move becomes decisive.
