The Return of Tech IPOs in 2025? What’s Fueling the Optimism with RBC's Jesse Chasse | Okay, Computer.
Nov 27, 2024
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In this discussion, Jesse Chasse, head of tech ECM at RBC Capital Markets, shares his expertise on the tech IPO landscape. He elaborates on the optimistic outlook for 2024 and the unique dynamics of public versus private investment. The conversation dives into the impact of generative AI, venture capital pressures, and the challenges in tech valuations. Jesse also recounts his experience with Waymo's robo-taxis, reflecting on deregulation led by Elon Musk and its implications for the evolving tech market.
The optimism surrounding the potential resurgence of tech IPOs in 2025 is influenced by easing regulatory constraints and stabilizing interest rates.
The contrasting performance of large tech firms benefiting from AI hype versus smaller software businesses highlights ongoing valuation challenges and market uncertainty.
Deep dives
Optimism in the IPO Market
The mood at a recent technology conference revealed a newfound optimism among public and private companies regarding the potential resurgence of the IPO market as they look forward to 2025. Attendees expressed excitement about the opportunities that might arise as regulatory constraints ease and interest rates stabilize. Many investors are hopeful that the market's growth trend will continue, fueled by a favorable economic climate and an earnings upgrade cycle, particularly in the software sector. However, questions remain about whether this optimism can be sustained into the new year, especially given the mixed performance of small and mid-cap tech stocks.
Shifts in Software Valuation
Software stocks, long viewed as risky investments, are starting to show signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with investors noting significant gains in some sectors driven by artificial intelligence. The ongoing integration of AI into business models has led to a revitalization of interest in certain software companies that had previously been considered uninvestable. Discussions surrounding the valuation of these companies highlight a divergence between large tech firms benefiting from AI hype and smaller software firms struggling to maintain growth amidst cautious spending. This dichotomy raises questions about the sustainability of these gains and the necessary conditions for continued investment in the software sector.
Challenges Facing the IPO Environment
The current IPO landscape is grappling with uncertainty, as many companies hesitate to enter the market due to unpredictable macroeconomic conditions and mixed stock performance. This year has seen only a handful of tech IPOs compared to the typical volume, primarily because potential public companies lack clear visibility into future earnings. Ongoing budget freezes in enterprise spending, coupled with concerns about economic downturns, have compounded these challenges. Investors are particularly interested in how smaller companies will manage their trajectory in a market where larger firms dominate.
M&A Strategies in a Changing Market
The potential for increased M&A activity exists as the regulatory landscape evolves; however, key players remain cautious about deploying capital. Large tech companies may opt to focus on internal innovations rather than acquisitions, despite having significant cash reserves. Financial sponsors are expected to drive the majority of M&A activity, seeking to capitalize on undervalued assets in the market. Companies entering the public sphere will need strategic planning to navigate the current environment while returning capital to investors, which may shift the focus from traditional IPO methods.
Dan Nathan is joined by Jesse Chasse, head of tech ECM at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss insights from RBC's recent TIMT conference in New York City. They explore the optimistic outlook for the IPO market in 2024, the performance of software subsectors, and the impact of generative AI. The conversation covers the public versus private investment dynamics, venture capital pressures, M&A potential, and regulatory considerations. The discussion also touches on public market demand for growth stories, the scarcity of high-growth tech companies, and challenges around valuations in the AI sector. Jesse shares personal anecdotes, including the experience of using Waymo's robo-taxis and the implications of potential deregulation driven by Elon Musk. The episode concludes with reflections on the evolving tech landscape and anticipated new narratives in the upcoming year.