The Joseph Carlson Show The Rise And Fall Of Duolingo
Nov 6, 2025
The podcast delves into Duolingo's recent 29% stock drop, unpacking investor concerns and the company's focus on long-term user growth. CEO Luis von Ahn discusses their strategy to prioritize teaching with AI over immediate monetization. Meanwhile, Google unveils its latest TPU technology that challenges NVIDIA, and Chipotle faces criticism for inconsistent portion sizes, backed by viral customer experiences. The host emphasizes fundamental analysis over reacting to stock fluctuations, using examples from Netflix and Amazon.
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Bookings Are A Forward Revenue Signal
- Bookings preview future revenue because current revenue was booked previously.
- A lower bookings midpoint signals slower future revenue and drove the market reaction.
Engagement And Subscriptions Still Climbing
- Duolingo's subscription revenue grew ~45% and paid subscribers rose to 11.5M, showing strong monetization trends.
- Daily and monthly active users also increased, contradicting earlier fears about AI-driven decline.
AI As A Strategic Growth Lever
- CEO Luis von Ahn frames AI as a unique chance to build an app that teaches as well as a human tutor.
- Management is prioritizing long-term teaching quality and user growth over short-term monetization.
